Alabama Crimson Tide: Predicting the Selection Committee rankings

Alabama Crimson Tide fans are more anxious about the next CFB Selection Committee ranking. Check out the latest ‘Bama Hammer’ prediction.

Last week we opened our predictions post commenting on how much losing hurts Alabama Crimson Tide fans. Despite winning a game last weekend, the Alabama football team experienced an even greater loss. Losing Tua Tagovailoa for the season, and likely having seen the end of his Alabama Crimson Tide career, is worse than losing a football game.

The now very real possibility of the Crimson Tide failing to make the College Football Playoff field for the first time ever – seems less important than it did a week ago. What was guarded optimism of the Tide’s chances last week has waned considerably. A few Crimson Tide fans even question the Tide’s ability to compete in a Playoff field without Tua.

Three national rankings are indicators of how the Selection Committee may rank the Tide. In the AP and Coaches Polls released on Sunday, the Alabama Crimson Tide dropped from No. 4 to No. 5. The FWAA (Football Writers Association) Poll had the Tide making the same drop to fifth.

The latest ESPN FPI is very different. Just like last week, Alabama is third, followed by LSU; Georgia; Penn State; Oregon and Oklahoma. Contrasting the major polls, even more, is the ESPN SP+ compiled by Bill Connelly. Connelly’s algorithm does not adjust for injuries but he estimates the loss of Tua might move the Tide down to about even with Georgia. His not injury-adjusted rankings have the top eight as Ohio State; Alabama; LSU; Clemson; Georgia; Oklahoma; Penn State and Utah. Oregon is ranked No. 15.

The Alabama Crimson Tide can still qualify for the Playoffs. Losing by five points to the No.1 team is not a resume killer. Losing Tua Tagovailoa is, however, a significant blemish, tainting perceptions of how competitive the Tide would be against the eventual Playoff field.

While we all wait for Tuesday night, the Bama Hammer staff has compiled a prediction of how we expect the Committee to rank the Tide and the seven other top eight teams. All of us are steadfastly rooting for the Crimson Tide to win out and get the help needed to make the Playoff. We just don’t see the Selection Committee Ranking matching our wishes in Tuesday’s rankings.

Predicted CFB Playoff Ranking – Nov. 19

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Oregon
6. Alabama
7. Utah
8. Oklahoma

The loss of Tua will be powerful added motivation for the Tide to exceed expectations. No Alabama football fan should give up on Mac Jones and the rest of the roster rising to a new challenge.