Alabama Crimson Tide: Predicting the fourth Selection Committee Ranking

(Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
(Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /
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Alabama Crimson Tide fans await the fourth CFB Selection Committee rankings Tuesday night. Check out the latest ‘Bama Hammer’ prediction.

Last week Tide fans agonized over the possibility of the Alabama Crimson Tide failing to make the College Football Playoff field – for the first time ever. Arizona State, taking down the Oregon Ducks, lightened fan apprehension.

Each week we look at the three national rankings as indicators to how the Selection Committee may rank the Tide. In the AP, Coaches and FWAA (Football Writers Association) polls, the Alabama Crimson Tide remained at No. 5.

Like last week, the ESPN FPI was very different from the Selection Committee rankings. The Alabama Crimson Tide is again third this week. Check out the ESPN FPI here. The shorthand version is LSU (4), Georgia (5), Auburn (9), Oklahoma (11), Utah (12) and Texas A&M (15).

Contrasting the major polls, even more, is the ESPN SP+ compiled by Bill Connelly.  His not injury-adjusted rankings have the top four as Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Clemson. The Georgia Bulldogs are fifth, Oklahoma is sixth. Utah is at eight and Auburn is No. 11. For those reading Connelly last week, his projection basically said Oregon was quite vulnerable against Arizona State. Connelly’s rankings are built to be predictive of future results.

The Alabama Crimson Tide can still qualify for the Playoffs. Losing by five points to the No.1 team is not a resume killer. Most of what must happen is for Georgia to lose. Georgia Tech cannot be counted on for that task, so it is up to LSU in the SEC Championship game. There are solid reasons the Alabama Crimson Tide already has a resume better than the Bulldogs, given the results against common opponents. Running counter to widespread Bama-fatigue, those arguments are not likely to get sufficient traction.

If – no, make that when LSU beats Georgia, the Bulldogs are out. The remaining risk to the Crimson Tide would be Utah (if it beats Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship) and a Big 12 Champion, Oklahoma. We don’t claim objectivity, but even without Tua, the Tide are better than the Utes and the Sooners.

While we wait for Tuesday night, the Bama Hammer staff has compiled a prediction of how we expect the Selection Committee to rank the Tide and the seven other top eight teams. In our voting, LSU and Ohio State tied at No. 1. Clemson and Georgia were nearly tied at No. 3. All of us ranked the Tide at No. 5, followed by Utah.

Predicted CFB Playoff Ranking – Nov. 26

No. 1 – LSU or Ohio State

No. 3 – Clemson Tigers

No. 4 – Georgia Bulldogs

No. 5 – Alabama Crimson Tide

No. 6 – Utah Utes

No. 7 – Oklahoma Sooners

No. 8 – Minnesota

Our Thank You Letter to Tua. dark. Next

Of course, no concern about the rankings matters unless the Tide takes down the Auburn Tigers. For the sake of getting the Committee’s notice, we guess the Tide needs a double-digit win on Saturday.