Alabama Basketball: Crimson Tide must make NCAA rep against SEC

Roughly halfway through the 2020 season, the Alabama basketball out-of-conference schedule has not been much help. The Tide must stake its NCAA claim with SEC wins.

At 10-7, Alabama basketball cannot afford to enjoy recent wins over Auburn and Missouri. While it is a couple of weeks too soon to talk about NCAA ‘Bubble’ teams, projecting a path to the Big Dance is warranted.

Depending on the source, the SEC is the fifth or sixth best conference this season.Teamrankings.com projects the SEC will get six to seven NCAA bids. Other experts say the SEC may only get five. It is too early to look at all the metrics used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. For now, following NCAA Net rankings is adequate, complemented by Crimson Tide Quadrant 1 and 2 wins and losses.

It is important to remember conference rankings do not determine NCAA selections. Other than SEC Tournament seeding, the SEC win-loss record is not much of a factor for Alabama basketball.

The current situation for Nate Oats team is it did not have enough success in the out-of-conference schedule for an easy path to an NCAA bid. The schedule included several top teams. Unfortunately, some of those top teams have struggled this season. Let’s review the Tide’s out-of-conference plusses and minuses.

Losing the opener to Penn on late free throws was tough. It was expected to become a good loss with Penn making an NCAA run. The Quakers are last in the Ivy League with a 6-7 record. The marquee games/losses to two 8-9 teams hurt the schedule rep. North Carolina is last in the ACC with a Net Ranking of 120. Iowa State is near the bottom of the Big 12 with a Net Ranking of 82.

The Florida Atlantic win is diminished by the 9-7, Owls having a Net Ranking of 204. A couple of more wins fit the same description. Southern Miss (2-14) has a 291 Net Ranking and Samford (5-12) is at 297.

The best out-of-conference losses for the Crimson Tide were Penn State (13-5) with a 35 Net Ranking and Rhode Island. The Rams are 12-5 with a 61 Net Ranking.

Among the 10 wins, the best out-of-conference win was Richmond (14-4), with a 56 Net Ranking. The win over Stephen F. Austin might prove to be a win over an NCAA team. SFA will almost surely win more than 20 games, but currently own a Net Ranking of 87. The Lumberjacks were hurt by a loss to TAMU-Corpus Christi.

The Furman (12-5) win for the Tide ranks as a Quad 3 win. Furman’s Net Ranking is 91.  Belmont is 13-5 in the Ohio Valley, and possibly a future NCAA Bubble team. At 109 Net Ranking for Belmont, the win by the Tide in Huntsville is a Quadrant 3 win.

The Tide can add another out-of-conference win on Saturday. Kansas State (8-9) with an 84 Net Ranking, beat West Virginia last week and plays Kansas Tuesday night.

Currently, the Crimson Tide is 1-4 against Quadrant 1 teams and 3-1 against Quadrant 2. The wins are Auburn, Richmond, Mississippi State and Missouri. Building an NCAA resume will take more than just a certain number of wins. Based on the current NCAA Net Ranking, the Tide’s remaining, regular-season chances for more Quadrant 1 wins are the pair of games with LSU (23) and the road game at Auburn (20). At least one win in that trio of games seems necessary. Arkansas is close to qualifying as a Quadrant 1 team.

Alabama basketball must also win the games it should win. The first of those is Wednesday night in Nashville. The 8-9, Dores have a Net Ranking of 143. History is on the side of Vandy in Memorial Gymnasium.

The Crimson Tide cannot afford a letup against Vandy. Losing to the Dores would be a major setback toward an NCAA bid.