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Alabama Basketball: Whatever happens Saturday Tide needs road wins

By Ronald Evans

KNOXVILLE, TN - JANUARY 19: Alex Reese #3 of the Alabama Crimson Tide drives the lane with Admiral Schofield #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers defending during the first half of their game at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 19, 2019 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Donald Page/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - JANUARY 19: Alex Reese #3 of the Alabama Crimson Tide drives the lane with Admiral Schofield #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers defending during the first half of their game at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 19, 2019 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Donald Page/Getty Images) /
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At 11-7, a Saturday night win over Kansas State would help Alabama basketball. But win or lose, the Tide needs road wins for an NCAA bid.

It has been a mostly rosy five weeks for Alabama basketball. Going back to Dec. 18, the Crimson Tide has won seven of nine games. The Tide’s NCAA Net Ranking has moved from a 97, down to a current 37. Alabama basketball fans are buzzing with NCAA bid expectations.

The enthusiasm is good. Nate Oats is building a solid basketball program in Tuscaloosa. Sweating NCAA bids will cease to be an annual ordeal. But, there is considerable work left and milestones to reach in the 2020 season.

For one thing, there are 13 games left and that is a lot of basketball. For another, for all the recent success the Crimson Tide is lacking in two key data points for an NCAA bid. So far, only the Auburn victory is a Quadrant 1 win. Technically Nate Oats’ team has two road wins. The NCAA may not count one of them. The win over Samford in Birmingham was really on a neutral court, with more Tide fans present than Samford fans. The only other road win was over Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Dores have a 150 Net, so it was not a marquee road win.

What resume does the Tide need going into the March SEC Tournament? The answers will change after each win or loss. At 11-7, finishing at 18-13 appears to be the minimum. Even 19-12 is no lock unless other measures include more positives. Based on current Net Rankings, the schedule has five more chances for Quad 1 wins. Winning one of the five is probably the minimum needed. Those games are LSU on the road and at home, plus Auburn, Georgia, and Mississippi State on the road.

Besides the four road games above, there are two more chances for road wins at Ole Miss and Missouri. A current best guess is, not counting the Samford game, the Tide needs a minimum of three road wins. The last remaining measure is winning the home games the Tide should win. Those are Kansas State, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. Three more games, all at home, probably will require two wins. Those games are Arkansas, Tennessee and South Carolina.

Add up the options and the indication is the Tide needs eight more wins in the regular season. Seven more wins and a strong SEC Tournament might work if three of the seven include another Quad 1 win and two road wins.

The SEC does not have the elite teams it had last season. Having a minimum of six teams gain NCAA bids is not guaranteed. Still, John Calipari was unusually accurate when he said of the SEC recently,

"You can win any game you play, but you can lose any game you play."

Next. SEC Power Rankings - Jan. 20. dark

The new Bama Hammer, SEC Power Rankings will be out Monday. Don’t miss them.

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