Alabama Basketball: Jones-less Crimson Tide path to NCAA bid

Can Alabama basketball navigate a path to an NCAA bid without Herbert Jones? Let’s consider what must happen over the next six weeks.

Almost every Alabama basketball fan knew immediately the loss of Henry Jones would weaken the Crimson Tide. Unquestionably the best defender on the team, a strong rebounder, a scoring contributor and all-around scrappiest guy on any court – Jones cannot be replaced by any other Tide player.

Nate Oats and the Alabama basketball training staff are hoping Jones can return three weeks after Saturday’s surgery. That timeframe was achieved by Donta Hall who had almost the identical surgery.

Casting optimism aside, some Tide fans remember Hall was still hurting and recovering for a few weeks after his return. There is little reason to expect Jones can carry his past, ball-handling load after three weeks. Perhaps he will be able to play. How effective he might be in the Tide’s last four or five regular-season games is an unknown.

Can the Alabama Crimson Tide win without Herbert Jones? Let’s put that aside for a bit and consider what the Tide needs to achieve for an NCAA bid.

As of Sunday afternoon (Feb. 2) the Tide was No. 42 in the NCAA NET rankings. Ken Pomeroy had Alabama basketball at No. 46. The Tide’s schedule difficulty is helping. Only two teams with more than nine losses are ranked higher than Alabama – Minnesota and Purdue.

With its position close to, but not quite into the NCAA ‘Bubble-zone,’ the Tide needs wins. First, it must not lose any games it is supposed to win. Those are Tennessee, at Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Other than Vandy, the other four ‘should’ wins could also become losses. In the best case of winning all five, 17 wins will still not be enough.

Beating Ole Miss and Missouri on the road would push the regular season record to 19-12. A 19-12 resume, without a solid road win, might or might not be enough. Consider another possible, regular-season loss to finish at 18-13 and NCAA chances will hinge on a strong SEC Tournament performance. At 18-13, the Tide would need at least two SEC Tournament wins.

If the Tide can beat Auburn or Mississippi State on the road, 19-12 and one SEC Tournament win should be enough. Get one of the two, tough road wins, finish 18-13 and two SEC Tournament wins should be enough.

With a favorable closing schedule and Herbert Jones, the Tide should have been ‘dancing’ in March. Losing him, even if for only three weeks, changes everything.