Alabama Basketball: Will luck turn for the snakebit Crimson Tide

How much is luck a factor in the outcome of games? Whatever the answer, Alabama basketball has had a luck deficit in Nate Oats’ first Crimson Tide season.

Whatever opinion is held on the impact of luck in games, most Alabama basketball fans would agree the Tide has not had much of it lately. Having to play LSU with a hobbled Tua; a pass bouncing off the back of an Auburn defender and turning into a pick-six; having to play with only seven, healthy scholarship players in the loss to Arkansas – doubtless some of that misfortune can be attributed to bad luck.

The general belief about luck is that it evens out over time. There is no football or basketball demigod or demon determining the outcome of games. Luck and its sister, fate is whimsical. So, over time, good luck will balance out bad luck. There is no guarantee such balancing out will occur in the short interval of a single season.

Some Alabama basketball fans have already accepted what they see as an inevitability. Another season of Crimson Tide basketball without an NCAA bid. The tipping point for many was the latest injury and resulting surgery for Herbert Jones. If the Arkansas game represents the new norm of Alabama basketball defense, pessimism is understandable.

No one Crimson Tide player can make up for the absent defensive skills of Herbert. Nate Oats has challenged his team to do more of what Jones does so well – dive for loose balls, take charges, make steals, battle for rebounds against more physically imposing opponents. Some of that was evident against the Razorbacks. Also missing was Jones’ ability to get to the basket. While he has struggled to finish, on the Tide roster, only Kira Lewis is better at attacking the basket.

The master of basketball stats, Ken Pomeroy does not under-value luck being a factor in college basketball outcomes. Using something from stat-geekiness called the Correlated Gaussian Method, Pomeroy has a luck data point for the 353 Division One teams. Per Pomeroy, this season, Alabama basketball’s lack of luck is exceeded by only 25 other teams. That data point is influenced by the current Jones injury in just one game. Meaning the Tide’s lack of luck goes back to the start of the season.

There is an old college football premise that may or may not apply to college basketball. It argues that the best-prepared teams benefit from more good luck than bad. Probably even more axiomatic is the most talented teams benefit from more good luck.

Should Nate Oats and his players be concerned about luck? Certainly not. Nick Saban probably includes luck as one of the external variables that should always be ignored. Even so, fans can still wish some good luck quickly comes the way of Crimson Tide basketball.

Talking more about luck, another Pomeroy stat will interest Alabama basketball fans. In the Pomeroy ranking, Auburn the fourth-luckiest team in college basketball.