Alabama Basketball: Tide ‘Bubble Watch’ and SEC Power Ranking

The Alabama basketball win over LSU puts the Tide in NCAA ‘Bubble’ range. Check out the Tide and other SEC team’s NCAA chances, plus the latest SEC Power Rankings.

Following the games of Feb. 8, the Alabama basketball was No. 42 in the NCAA NET Ranking. The overtime loss at Auburn and the big home win over LSU pushed the Tide up to No. 35. Low to mid-thirties in the NET normally puts teams in seven to ten seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

The NCAA Selection Committee considers several sets of data. An important one is Strength of Schedule (SOS). As provided by Warren Nolan, the Tide’s SOS is No. 5. Beating LSU gave the Crimson Tide another Quad One win.

Expert sources disagree on the Crimson Tide’s NCAA Tournament chances. The Selection Committee uses its NET Ranking, SOS, Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Sagarin, ESPN’s BPI and the somewhat lesser-known, KPI. Quad One wins are pivotal. So are bad Quad Three losses and any Quad Four loss. The current Alabama basketball profile is:

• Quad 1: 2-6; Wins: Auburn and LSU
• Quad 2: 4-4; Wins: Arkansas, Richmond, Mississippi State and Georgia
• Quad 3: 5-1 – The one loss was the early, one-point loss to Penn
• Quad 4:  3-0

The Tide loss to North Carolina could slip from Quad 2 to Quad 3. The Furman win could slip from Quad 2 to Quad 3.

There are too many games left to review what teams will compete with the Tide for at-large bids. There are more than 30 teams in the hunt for the last 12 of the 36 at-large bids.  A general guess is there will be twenty or more one-bid leagues, meaning fewer bid-stealing teams.

Check out the NCAA chances of all the SEC teams. The latest (through games of Feb. 15)  NCAA NET, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin rankings are included.

NCAA Tournament Near-Locks

Auburn – No. 24 (NCAA Net); No. 33 (kenpom); No. 24 (Sagarin)

Kentucky – No. 25 (NCAA Net); No. 30 (kenpom); No. 8 (Sagarin)

LSU – No. 27 (NCAA Net); No. 34 (kenpom); No. 34 (Sagarin)

NCAA Tournament SEC Bubble Teams

Florida – No. 36 (NCAA Net); No. 38 (kenpom); No. 40 (Sagarin)

NCAA Tournament SEC Work-to-do Teams

Alabama Crimson Tide – No. 35 (NCAA Net); No. 46 (kenpom); No. 44 Sagarin

Arkansas – No. 44 (NCAA Net); No. 44 (kenpom); No. 67 (Sagarin)

Mississippi State – No. 52 (NCAA Net); No. 48 (kenpom); No. 46 (Sagarin)

South Carolina – No. 64 (NCAA Net); No. 74 (kenpom); No. 57 (Sagarin)

Tennessee – No. 63 (NCAA Net); No. 57 (kenpom); No. 55 (Sagarin)

NCAA Tournament – Other SEC Teams

Ole Miss – No. 81 (NCAA Net); No. 87 (kenpom); No. 60 (Sagarin)

Missouri – No. 87 (NCAA); No. 103 (kenpom); No. 81 (Sagarin)

Georgia – No. 99 (NCAA Net); No. 104 (kenpom); No. 112 (Sagarin)

Texas A&M – No. 132 (NCAA Net); No. 170 (kenpom); No. 133 (Sagarin)

Vanderbilt – No. 148 (NCAA Net); No. 174 (kenpom); No. 151 (Sagarin)

Our weekly Bama Hammer  SEC Power Ranking is offered below. It is a subjective ranking of the best SEC teams from top to bottom. Actual win-loss records are a guide but do not determine each week’s rankings.

SEC Power Rankings – Feb. 17

1. Kentucky; 20-5; 10-2
2. Auburn; 22-3; 9-3
3. LSU; 18-7; 9-3
4. Florida; 16-9; 8-4
5. Alabama; 14-11; 6-6
6. Mississippi State; 16-9; 7-5
7. South Carolina; 16-9; 8-4
8. Arkansas; 16-9; 4-8
9. Tennessee; 14-11; 6-6
10. Ole Miss; 13-12; 4-8
11. Missouri; 12-13; 4-8
12. Texas A&M; 12-12; 6-6
13. Georgia; 11-13; 2-10
14. Vanderbilt; 9-16; 1-11

Another algorithm to consider comes from teamrankings.com. It calculates the Crimson Tide is a NCAA, 10-seed, 40 on the S-curve and with an 84 percent chance of making the Big Dance.