NFL Drafts are hard to predict. The Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU are poised for a big first-round. Which team will win a first-round battle of top picks?
Even just hours before they happen, NFL Draft selections are hard to predict. Two teams, the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Bengal Tigers are in line to dominate the 2020 NFL Draft.
Between the two, old rivals, let’s consider which program will have the most first-round success in 2020.
LSU appears to own the first selection in Joe Burrow to the Bengals. That presumed top pick may not push LSU into the top 2020, first-round Draft class. The total number of first-round selections also matters. When those selections occur, No. 1- No. 32 is an evaluating factor.
To help provide a projection, Bama Hammer reviewed seven Mock Drafts from credible sources. None of the sources are identified in this post for two reasons. Some of them are behind paywalls. Others are no more credible than another 10-12 NFL Draft experts. Alabama Crimson Tide fans will choose to follow their preference for Mock Drafts and those preferences will be just as valid as the seven we reviewed.
The purpose of using seven was to define a range of predicted selections for each Alabama and LSU player. From that range, an average selection was defined for each player. For example, all seven had Joe Burrow as No. 1, so his average was ‘1’.
More importantly, all seven predictions were used to create a weighted scale, from zero points (not projected as first-round pick) to 32 points for a No. 1 pick. The expected first pick in the 2020 Draft, Joe Burrow was calculated at seven times 32 for 224 points.
LSU Bengal Tigers – Six Potential First Round Picks
- Joe Burrow; average selection, No. 1 (based on seven projections); 224 points
- K’Lavon Chaisson; average selection No. 18 (seven projections); 105 points
- Kristian Fulton; average selection No. 22 (based on six first-round projections); 81 points
- Justin Jefferson; average selection No. 23 (seven projections); 72 points
- Patrick Queen; average selection No. 22 (based on six first-round projections); 64 points
- Grant Delpit; average selection No. 19 (with only one first-round projection); 14 points
Based on our calculation the first-round total for LSU is 560 points. Let’s see how the Alabama Crimson Tide compares.
Alabama Crimson Tide – Six Potential First-Round Picks
- Tua Tagovailoa; average selection No. 4 (based on seven projections); 200 points
- Jedrick Wills; average selection No. 8 (based on seven projections); 174 points
- Jerry Jeudy; average selection No. 11 (based on seven projections); 150 points
- Henry Ruggs III; average selection No. 14 (based on seven projections); 132 points
- Xavier McKinney; average selection No. 21 (based on seven projections); 82 points
- Trevon Diggs; average selection No. 20 (based on five projections); 64 points
Using our method, the Alabama Crimson Tide gets 802 first-round points.
The calculation used could easily be flawed. Being based on seven individual opinions, it is certainly not objective. But 802-560 points leaves room for lots of error, after which the Crimson Tide would likely remain on top.