Alabama Football: LSU has one and only one chance

Alabama Football: The spread in the LSU is historical and the Bengal Tigers have exactly one chance to win.

As Alabama football, including Nick Saban, travel to Baton Rouge, talk from the LSU program is about anticipation. As in anticipating to do battle with the Crimson Tide. Outside the Bengal Tigers’ football program, the sentiment is quite different.

Odds posted by the Action Network, have the Alabama Crimson Tide as a 28.5 to 29.5 point favorite. ESPN reported no defending National Champion of the last “40 years” has gone into a game as such an underdog.

Media coverage in the state of Louisiana is no more encouraging. Glen Guilbeau, writing for the Lafayette Daily Advertiser said,

"One has to go back to 1992 to find the last time LSU entered an Alabama football game with as little chance of winning."

Guilbeau is referring to a 1993 game when the heavily, defending National Champion, Alabama football team hosted LSU in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide was favored by 25 points over a 3-5 LSU team. A popular media line leading up to the game was LSU’s chances of winning were equal to pigs flying. The Crimson Tide was on a 31-game unbeaten streak, blemished by a single tie to Tennessee, three weeks earlier. LSU, coached by former Alabama football assistant and Northport AL native, Curley Hallman, won 17-13.

Can ‘pigs fly’ in Baton Rouge on Saturday? Playing at home gives LSU no historical advantage. Check out some history in the tweet below.

The Crimson Tide record in Baton Rouge is stunning. In fairness to LSU, the overall series shows the Bengal Tigers with success in the state of Alabama. The Alabama football home record against LSU is 24-17-2, only winning 58.1 percent of the games.

The Tide’s historical success in the 84 game series has been mostly achieved on the road. The Crimson Tide is 28-9-3 in the state of Louisiana, including a win and a tie in New Orleans. The Tide’s away record equates to a 73.8 winning percentage.

Author’s Note: The stats in the preceding two paragraphs were provided by the excellent site, mccubed.net.

Glen Guilbeau also wrote that in every Crimson Tide game since 1992, he has believed LSU had a chance to win. His one sentence, paragraph sums this season.

"But this year. No way."

In slight disagreement with Guilbeau, there is one way for LSU to win. It is not based on what the Bengal Tigers do, or don’t. Rather it comes down to the Crimson Tide. For LSU to win, Nick Saban’s, Alabama football team must be in ‘coast’ mode, going through the motions against an inferior foe. Only then could LSU win – but it won’t, because Nick Saban will not allow his players to be so casual.

Nick Saban will not be welcome in Baton Rouge. He will be reviled even more after Saturday’s Crimson Tide beatdown.