Alabama Football: With new CFBP ranking, the question is ‘what if’

Alabama Football remained on top of the Tuesday CFBP ranking. With two ranking cycles remaining, all questions begin with ‘what if.’

Alabama football fans mostly stand back from the never-ending debate over what the Selection Committee got wrong each week. No Crimson Tide fan would complain with Alabama Football at No. 1.

Plenty of other college football fans will always be unhappy. The fact Tide fans are satisfied now is no guarantee we will be going forward. Most of us are not stressed because we believe the Crimson Tide only needs to win one of the next two games to make the final four.

While there is no shortage of divergent opinions, there are only about six schools who should be concerned about the committee’s final four. They are Ohio State, Texas A&M, Florida, and to a lesser extent, Notre Dame, Clemson and the Alabama Crimson Tide. Others, especially ESPN, will spin claims Indiana, Southern Cal, even Cincinnati are in the mix. Check out the latest ESPN Playoff Predictor below.

Is the ESPN Predictor broken? Since the algorithm is secret, no one can analyze its potential accuracy. It clearly carries some assumptions. Ohio State dropped from 87 percent due to the cancellation of the Michigan game.

Alabama football fans can happily ignore the predictor. Instead, we would like to see the same analysis if the Crimson Tide was to lose to Florida.

Getting back to the Selection Committee and Tuesday night; Committee Chair, Gary Barta offered some clues. Talking about No. 4 Ohio State, Barta said,

"We’ve talked about it from day one, that the number of games was going to be critical.We were able to watch another game Oho State played, that was important, and they performed well."

Barta cannot be faulted for being mostly vague. The Selection Committee has the prerogative to change its mind at any time. The Ohio State ranking suggests ‘if the Buckeyes are 5-0 with no B1G Championship’, they might get in. At 6-0, with a B1G Championship, they appear to be in a stronger position.

So what ‘if’ a 6-0, Ohio State makes the field, who does not ‘if’ the Crimson Tide loses to Florida? A Clemson loss to Notre Dame would allow the Irish, Alabama, Florida and Ohio State to make the final four. ‘If’ Clemson wins, assume Clemson and Notre Dame both make the Playoff field. The other two slots would be filled by two of, the Florida Gators, the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Alabama Crimson Tide.

‘If’ Florida were to narrowly beat the Crimson Tide, the four-best assessment should go down to the Crimson Tide in, along with Florida or Ohio State. A guess for that scenario, on Dec. 20,  Ohio State, with at most six wins, would not make the Playoffs.

The complete Dec. 8 ranking is available here.

Casting aside ‘what ifs,’ the Crimson Tide is the nation’s best team. Losing to Florida, while possible, is not probable. Two more wins and Alabama football will cruise to the No. 1 seed.