Alabama Football: Why a one-year response to CFBP field is always wrong

College Football Playoffs No. 3 Seeds

• 2015 – No. 3 Florida State  lost by 39 points to Oregon
• 2016 – No. 3 Michigan State lost by 38 points to the Alabama Crimson Tide
• 2017 – No. 3 Ohio State lost by 31 points to Clemson
• 2018 – No. 3 Georgia beat Oklahoma in overtime
• 2019 – No. 3 Notre Dame lost by 27 points to Clemson
• 2020 – No. 3 Clemson beat Ohio State by six points
• Four of the six games were lost by the No. 3 seed by an average of 33.75 points. The margin would be greater had the higher seed not often coasted in the closing quarter.

College Football Playoffs No. 4 Seeds

• 2015 – No. 4 Ohio State beat Alabama Football by seven points
• 2016 – No. 4 Oklahoma lost to Clemson by 20 points
• 2017 – No. 4 Washington lost to Alabama by 17 points
• 2018 – No. 4 Alabama beat Clemson by 18 points
• 2019 – No. 4 Oklahoma lost to Alabama by 11 points
• 2020 – No. 4 Oklahoma lost to LSU by 35 points
• Again the lower seed lost four of the six games. The average losing margin in the No. 4 seed losses has been 20.75 points. The one upset with a large winning margin was Alabama over Clemson in 2018.

Two conclusions can be drawn from the Playoff history. One is the Selection Committee has done a good job of identifying the two best teams, even if they went into the Playoff seeded lower. Another conclusion is in most years, the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds are not nearly as good as the top two seeds. The losing margins of the lower seeds run counter to the premise of an eight-team field being an improvement. Add four teams and the odds are, even more, one-sided results will occur.

The CFBP Playoff game results discussed in this post are available here.