Alabama Basketball: A new day for Crimson Tide hoops

Alabama Basketball: Almost two months before the 2021 NCAA Tournament begins, the Crimson Tide is an assumed lock to be in the ‘Big Dance’ field.

Alabama basketball fans are ecstatic over what Nate Oats has so quickly done in Tuscaloosa. Eight wins in a row, the three most recent being beatdowns of Kentucky, Arkansas and LSU. What more could Crimson Tide fans ask for? An NCAA Tournament run, proving Nate Oats’ team has staying power.

Is brake-pumping advisable? January NCAA Tournament predictions can evaporate in February and they do every year for some teams. The Alabama Crimson Tide does not appear to be one of those teams. The Crimson Tide has 11 more SEC games and a road trip to Oklahoma. Even if the Tide’s winning pace slows, the SEC Tournament is looking like nothing more than a tune-up for the main March event.

Current numbers and projections should provide confidence for any nervous Alabama basketball fans. The latest (Jan. 20) NCAA NET Ranking has the Crimson Tide at No. 11. Ken Pomeroy has the Tide at No. 10. TeamRankings also has the Tide at No. 11 with an NCAA Tournament prediction of 100 percent. Only five teams in Division 1 are rated at 100 percent to make the NCAA Tournament. Along with the Crimson Tide are Baylor, Gonzaga, Iowa and Texas. The site predicts Nate Oats’ team will finish the regular season at 21-6.

One of the features of the NCAA NET algorithm is a loss to a strong team is not overly punished. For example, the Florida Gators thrashed the Tennessee Vols Tuesday night. The Vols NET ranking only dropped from No. 4 to No. 6. This season’s schedule also benefits the Crimson Tide. Even with the Kentucky Wildcats having a stunningly poor season, other SEC teams are doing well.

Of the Tide’s 12 remaining regular-season games, 10 are against teams currently ranked in the NET top 100 teams. Four of those teams are ranked at No. 38 (Arkansas) or higher; Oklahoma (No. 32); LSU dropped only two spots after the Tide’s victory and is at No. 25.  The Missouri Tigers are at No. 23. The ebb and flow of the NET rankings change daily, but the Crimson Tide is in a strong position.

The worst Crimson Tide loss is not severely damaging. A close loss to Western Kentucky, ranked at No. 88 is the only serious blemish in the Tide’s NCAA resume. Losses to Clemson (No. 31) and Stanford (No. 60) are mediated by good Tide wins, including one out-of-conference, over No. 52 Furman.

Our previous post mentioning NCAA Tournament seeds was tinged with concern the conversation was premature. Abandoning such caution, we gladly acknowledge Joe Lunardi has the Tide as a No. 2 seed in Region 4 of the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The only thing left to add is that Nate Oats should be in serious contention as the National Coach of the Year.

How good the Crimson Tide is, is yet to be seen. What we can now understand is why Nate Oats talked in the preseason about an NCAA Tournament run.