Alabama Football: Beating the odds for a repeat National Championship

Alabama Football: Though the Crimson Tide did it in 2012, a repeat National Championship is the most difficult achievement in college football.

Celebrating the 2020 National Championship is not over for Alabama football fans. As the ’20 season is re-lived, thoughts are turning forward to next season and whether the Alabama Crimson Tide can repeat as National Champions.

If all of the FBS, college football world is the sample, winning one National Championship is the greatest challenge for 100-plus programs. Going back to 1990, consensus National Championships have been won by just 14 schools. The number of programs each season with a reasonable probability to become CFB’s Champion are no more than 25, and practically less than 15.

The reality of National Championship aspirations is why so many fans and programs clamor for an expanded Playoff field. Before the Alabama Crimson Tide won again, Geoff Schwartz explained the motivations,

"The argument for an 8 team playoff isn’t about seeing a different winner. It’s about rewarding teams for their regular season, keeping fan bases/regions included, and just having more high profile games to watch. As it stands right now, we aren’t getting a different winner."

The opening and closing sentences in Schwartz’s statement appear contradictory. The middle sentence is interesting because before the BCS and the CFB Playoff, what he lobbies for is what bowl games were. They are not that as much now because the CFB Playoff has been a smashing marketing success.

What gets obscured in such arguments is the Playoff’s purpose is to determine the best team every season. The current Playoff format has accomplished the goal of an undisputed National Champion every year. Undisputed, other than a bizarre claim in 2017.

All the other programs feeling hurt by exclusion from the Playoffs should start a secondary event. Maybe a 16-team tournament that would be similar in stature to what the NIT once was in college basketball.

What Alabama Football and other truly elite programs should do is ignore the nonsense and stick to business. In Tuscaloosa, that business is National Championships. Rightly or wrongly, Crimson Tide success in the 2021 season will be measured by winning or failing to win another National Championship.

A repeat National Championship is the tallest mountain for elite teams to climb. There have been 26 undefeated and untied National Champions going back to 1979. There have been only two repeat, Consensus National Champions going back to 1956. They were Nebraska in 1995 and the Crimson Tide in 2012. Going back to the start of the Poll-Era, there have been only four more: Minnesota in 1941; Army in 1945; Notre Dame in 1947, and Oklahoma in 1956.

Can Alabama Football get to the top of the 2021 mountain? History indicates the probability of success is not high. Betting odds are for gambling, rather than defining odds of probability. Outcomes are impacted by unmeasurable variables, not the least of which is luck, along with injuries to key players. Some Las Vegas odds give the Alabama Crimson Tide “3-1 odds” for a repeat.

No one knows, not even Nick Saban, if the Crimson Tide can repeat. He will not waste a moment fretting over the Tide’s odds. As always, his goal and the primary goal he works to inculcate in his players is to focus on what is in front of them, every day, every training and practice session, every rep. Nick knows that’s the only way to becoming a Champion.

Looking forward to more Crimson Tide success, there is never a ‘too early.’ A projected ’21 Defense Two-Deep is coming soon.