Alabama Basketball: Why seeding matters in NCAA Tournament

Alabama Basketball: A deep dive into how important seeding is in relation to success in the NCAA Tournament.

As much as Alabama basketball followers want to believe otherwise, the University of Alabama is not yet a ‘Basketball Schoool.’ It can become one. It can be argued it was one in the 1980s and early 1990s when Wimp Sanderson led his teams to 10 NCAA Tournaments in 11 seasons.

By a strict, historical standard, the only ‘Basketball Schools’ are those who have made Final Fours. Only eight SEC schools have done so. Four of them, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State and South Carolina have done it once. LSU has been to four Final Fours, Florida to five and Arkansas to six. Kentucky is tied with UCLA for the second-most Final Four appearances, at 17.

If an accepted benchmark is having made four Final Fours, only 27 teams are true ‘Basketball Schools.’ The Alabama Crimson Tide may one day join that group. First, it must do it once. Notwithstanding a glowing assessment by Jay Bilas, the Tide’s performance after the Bilas comment indicates getting to the Big Dance and making a nice run is more realistic for this season.

The odds of doing well in the NCAA Tournament correlate to tournament seeding. Alabama basketball fans have little practice in paying attention to seeding. Our perspective for many seasons has been sweating out an NCAA Tournament bid.

Seeding matters much to NCAA Tournament success. After reaching a first-ever No. 1 projected seed last week, the Tide has slipped down the NCAA Tournament S-curve.

If the Alabama Crimson Tide drops more, the floor needs to be a No. 6 seed. Historical NCAA Tournament data explains why.

• Seven seeds and below win less than half of their NCAA Tournament games, From 47.4 percent for a No. 7 down to 0.7 percent for a No. 16 seed.
• Six seeds have won 53.3 percent of NCAA Tournament games.
• Five seeds have won 52.9 percent; four seeds, 59.3 percent; three seeds, 64.2 percent; two seeds 70. 1 percent and one seeds, 78.7 percent.

The excellent data above was compiled by mcubed.net and includes all rounds of NCAA Tournament play.

Check this data from NCAA First Round games going back to 1985.

• No. 1 Seed vs No.16 Seed – 139-1 – 99.29 Winning Percentage No. 1 Seed
• No. 2 Seed vs No. 15 Seed – 132-8 – 94.29 Winning Percentage No. 2 Seed
• No. 3 Seed vs No. 14 Seed – 119-21 – 85 Winning Percentage No. 3 Seed
•  No. 4 Seed vs. No.13 Seed – 111-28 – 79.29 Winning Percentage No. 4 Seed
• No. 5 Seed vs No. 12 Seed – 90-47 – 64.29 Winning Percentage No. 5 Seed
• No. 6 Seed vs No. 11 Seed – 88-51 – 62.86 Winning Percentage No. 6 Seed
• No. 7 Seed vs No. 10 Seed – 85-52 – 60.71 Winning Percentage No. 7 Seed
• No. 8 Seed vs No. 9 Seed – 69-71 – 49.28 Winning Percentage No. 8 Seed

Anything can happen in one game, but the Crimson Tide a No. 4 seed or above is where Nate Oats’ team needs to be on Selection Sunday.

At the risk of fueling ‘rat poison’ by mentioning ‘Final Four’ again, the odds below, provided by the NCAA, show Final Four chances, based on seeding.

• No. 1 seed; 57 percent
• No. 2 seed; 29 percent
• No. 3 seed; 17 percent
• No. 4 seed; 13 percent
• No. 5 seed; 7 percent
• No. 6 seed and No. 7 seeds; 3 percent
• No. 8 seed; 5 percent
• No. 9 and No. 10 seeds; 1 percent
• No. 11 seed; 4 percent
• No. 12 through No. 16 seeds; zero percent

The stats above are from NCAA Tournaments going back to 1985. Though the NCAA Tournament goes back to the 1939  season, seeding was not used until 1979.

After the loss to Missouri, Jerry Palm kept Alabama Basketball as a projected 2-seed. In his latest bracket, the Tide would open with Grand Canyon and play the winner of Purdue vs. Western Kentucky.