Alabama Basketball: NCAA Bracket Watch and paths to No. 1 Seed

Alabama Basketball: Everything a Crimson Tide fan needs to follow the Tide’s NCAA Bracket probabilities and possible paths to a No. 1 seed.

For Alabama Basketball, ‘just win’ a few more games and it will have a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. On Monday, Joe Lunardi tweeted he currently has the Tide as the highest No. 2 seed. So from that one snapshot, the Tide needs to only make up ground on one of the four teams seeded above it.

Of course, it is not that simple. The regular season has games left, plus conference tournaments. Somewhat mediating future flux, is top teams in late February don’t get severely punished by a couple of losses down the stretch. The 2021 college basketball season is nearing the point where no more than 10-12 teams have a chance to earn No. 1 seeds.

Before considering future seeds, it is important to understand how the Selection Committee chooses and seeds teams. The NCAA NET rankings we frequently cite is a useful tool to guide the committee. More data is used, along with head-to-head games and eye-ball tests to select the final seeds. Like it uses its own algorithm, the committee pays close attention to others. The four most relied upon are provided by Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Sagarin and the ESPN BPI and SOR (strength of record) rankings.

The frequently discussed NCAA Team Sheets are made up of two categories of data. They are the Team Value Index and the Net Efficiency Rating. More detail on those two calculations can be found here.

All of the above are part of the process of seeding teams. In the end, the data is not always enough and the committee must make a judgment call. The difference between an overall (counting 1-68) four-seed and an overall five-seed can be slight.

The path for the four-seed, as a member of the No. 1 seed group is easier than the path for the five-seed, in the No. 2 seed group.

In a rapid reversal of fortune, Nate Oats has Alabama Basketball where gaining a high seed is a big deal. A No. 1 seed would be awesome. A No. 2 seed would be good as well. A No. 3 seed would not be a major disappointment. Dropping to a No. 5 or below, in the season’s closing weeks, would be a blow.

Over the next few weeks, leading up to Selection Sunday, we will review the Crimson Tide’s seed chances. For those Alabama basketball fans less familiar with Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin their Monday, Feb. 15 rankings are listed below. Pomeroy updates throughout the day and night so his list reflects that Florida State beat Virginia Monday night.

Ken Pomeroy Ranking

1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. Michigan
4. Iowa
5. Illinois
6. Houston
7. Ohio State
8. Alabama
9. Loyola-Chicago
10. Virginia

Jeff Sagarin Ranking (through games of Feb. 14)

1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. Michigan
4. Iowa
5. Illinois
6. Virginia
7. Houston
8. Ohio State
9. Alabama
10. Villanova

The Alabama basketball game at Texas A&M, scheduled for Wednesday night, will now be played Thursday night. Check-in with Bama Hammer frequently as we track the Tide’s NCAA Tournament seed path.