Alabama Basketball: How NCAA and SEC will treat disparity in games played

Alabama Basketball: Computer models once supposedly tainted BCS football selections. A similar human-computer relationship determines ‘Big Dance’ teams.

In a season odd for many reasons, Alabama Basketball as a sudden national power fits right in. A ‘not’ basketball school is chasing teams like Illinois, Ohio State and Houston, in the hope of earning a ‘Big Dance’ No. 1 seed.

The process of seeding March Madness teams has long been complex. Picking the last 8-10 teams in the 68-team field is hard. Designating a correct seed for the top twenty or so teams is always harder.

COVID has added another challenge to evaluating teams. Due to game cancellations, there are disparities in how many games teams have and will play. Of the 349 Division One teams competing this season, more than a few have played less than10 games. Many games, currently shown on schedules as postponed will not be played. One of them might be the Alabama Basketball vs. Texas A&M game.

The Alabama Crimson Tide has not missed much because of COVID. At 22 games so far, the Crimson Tide will likely end up with more games than the national average. Only four SEC teams have played 22 games. South Carolina has played only 15, Texas A&M, 17 and Vanderbilt, 17 games.

There has been no official word from the SEC, but a new tie-breaker might be required for SEC Tournament seeding. The percentage of wins vs. losses might be a needed data point. Currently, SEC conference winning percentages would not alter seeding, but they could at the end.

By necessity, NCAA seeding is murkier. After all the voluminous data is reviewed, the Selection Committee members make value judgments. A tough and not yet publicly discussed decision will be how to value the number of games each team plays. Among current NCAA NET, top ten teams, Alabama Basketball has played more games than the others. Michigan has played only 15; Baylor, 17; Houston, 18 and Virginia, 19. Assuming a reasonable schedule does not allow most of the missed games to be played, is the Crimson Tide disadvantaged?  The teams having played fewer games have also had fewer opportunities to lose. If the Crimson Tide had played only 15 games to this point, would it have five losses? Probably not.

Resolving such disparities will be impossible. The Selection Committee will strive to be fair. In no season do teams play an equal number of games. But in a normal year, the range in the number of games played does not much matter.

Looking for the most recent Bracketology update. According to the Feb. 16 update, Bracket Matrix has Alabama Basketball has the top No. 2 seed.