Alabama Basketball: Updated NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch

Alabama Basketball: Three weeks until Selection Sunday, the Crimson Tide remains in contention for a top NCAA Tournament seed.

The 18-5 Alabama basketball team is holding firm as a No. 2 seed in NCAA Tournament bracket projections. On Saturday, the Alabama Crimson Tide failed to execute its normal three-point shooting barrage but found a way to beat Vanderbilt without the treys.

What could have turned into a resume-damaging loss might have been a needed wake-up call for the Crimson Tide. Wednesday night in Fayetteville, the Tide has its most important game of the SEC season against a surging Arkansas team. The Razorbacks have won seven straight SEC games. If Alabama Basketball wins on Wednesday, it will at least share the SEC regular-season championship. Beating the Hogs would give the Tide a near-lock on the outright SEC title.

The Alabama Crimson Tide has not been the outright SEC Regular Season Champion since Wimp Sanderson was the head coach in the 1987 season. Achieving that milestone would be no small feat, but the Alabama basketball program has goals going past the SEC regular season. The Crimson Tide has not won the SEC Tournament since 1991, following SEC Tourney wins in 1990, 1989 and 1987.

Winning the SEC Tournament again would be a major achievement but for a suddenly, nationally relevant Crimson Tide program, a deep run in the NCAA Tournament is even more important. The Team Rankings site has the Crimson Tide as a 100 percent NCAA Tournament lock and projected as the top No. 2 seed. The site gives the Tide a 29 percent probability of winning the SEC Tournament and a 38 percent probability of gaining an NCAA No. 1 seed.

The same site gives Nate Oats’ team a 59 percent chance of reaching the Big Dance Sweet 16. Making the Elite Eight is given a 34 percent chance. A Crimson Tide trip to the Final Four is given a 16 percent chance.

Holding the currently projected No. 2 seed is essential to maintaining those chances. The percentages would go up if the Tide earns a No. 1 seed. As a final No. 3 seed, the odds would be less and would go down with each drop in NCAA Tournament seeding.

The competition for the top 12 seeds in the NCAA Tournament is probably only 20 or so teams. The three best measurements of how those top teams stand are the NCAA NET Ranking, and the rankings published by Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. The top 20 teams in each ranking are listed below.

NCAA NET Ranking

1. Gonzaga 22-0; also No. 1 by Pomeroy and Sagarin
2. Baylor 17-0; also No. 2 by Pomeroy and Sagarin
3. Michigan 15-1; also No. 3 by Sagarin and No. 4 by Pomeroy
4. Illinois 16-5; No. 5 by Pomeroy and Sagarin
5. Iowa 16-6; No. 3 by Pomeroy and No. 4 by Sagarin
6. Ohio State 18-4; same by Pomeroy and Sagarin
7. Houston 16-3; No. 7 by Pomeroy and No. 8 by Sagarin
8. Alabama 18-5; No. 8 by Pomeroy and No. 11 by Sagarin
9. Virginia 15-5; No. 9 by Pomeroy and No. 7 by Sagarin
10. Villanova 14-3; No. 11 by Pomeroy and No. 9 by Sagarin
11. Loyola-Chicago 17-4; No. 10 by Pomeroy and No. 37 by Sagarin
12. Florida State 13-3; same by Pomeroy and No. 10 by Sagarin
13. Colgate 10-1; No. 100 by Pomeroy and No. 65 by Sagarin
14. Texas Tech 14-7; No. 22 by Pomeroy and No. 16 by Sagarin
15. West Virginia 15-6; No. 16 by Pomeroy and No. 14 by Sagarin
16. Kansas 16-7; No. 23 by Pomeroy and No. 12 by Sagarin
17. Tennessee 15-6; No. 25 by Pomeroy and No. 20 by Sagarin
18. Oklahoma 14-5; No. 27 by Pomeroy and No. 18 by Sagarin
19. USC 18-4; No. 13 by Pomeroy and No. 26 by Sagarin
20. Colorado 17-7; No. 17 by Pomeroy and No. 31 by Sagarin

Other SEC Schools

• Arkansas 17-5; No. 25 in NCAA NET; No. 24 Pomeroy; No. 21 Sagarin
• LSU 14-6; No. 27 NCAA NET; No. 28 by Pomeroy; No. 25 by Sagarin
• Florida 11-6; No. 30 NCAA NET; No. 31 by Pomeroy; No. 29 by Sagarin
• Missouri 14-6; No. 37 NCAA NET; No. 44 by Pomeroy; No. 50 by Sagarin
• Ole Miss 12-9; No. 60 NCAA NET; No. same by Pomeroy and No. 62 by Sagarin
• Kentucky 8-13; No. 64 NCAA NET; No. 48 by Pomeroy and No. 49 by Sagarin
• Auburn 11-12; No. 71 NCAA NET; No. 63 by Pomeroy and No. 61 by Sagarin

Joe Lunardi has not updated his full bracket but in his most frequent tweet, the ESPN Bracketologist still has the Crimson Tide as a 2-seed and his No. 6 team in NCAA Tournament seeding.