Alabama Basketball: Crimson Tide on 8-team ‘win it all’ list

Alabama Basketball: According to college basketball expert, Jimmy Dykes, the Crimson Tide is one of eight teams that can win National Championship.

Not every Alabama basketball fan wants to consider the Crimson Tide a National Championship contender. Doing so is the kind of ‘rat poison’ Nick Saban warns against. But a growing number of national, college basketball experts are on record about the Tide’s potential to win it all.

The first was Jay Bilas and the most recent is Jimmy Dykes. Both men are college basketball experts, less consumed than their counterparts by the ESPN hype machine. Inside the swirl of ESPN, created sizzle, Bilas and Dykes provide substance.

Dykes played college ball at Arkansas. He was a college assistant for many years, an NBA scout, and also head women’s team coach at Arkansas. His conclusions are not driven by algorithms, but rather clear-eyed observation of teams.

That observation led to the tweet below.

According to Dykes, four Big Ten teams, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois and Iowa can win the NCAA Tournament. His other four favorites are Gonzaga, Baylor, Florida State and the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Dykes would agree a few more teams have a chance to win it all, but not with a probability that matches the eight he chose. Other teams worthy of mention are Houston, Villanova, Virginia and West Virginia. A handful of others have ‘some’ chance, but the National Champion will almost assuredly come from one of just 14-16 teams. That Alabama Basketball is one of them is astounding.

There are some counter opinions about the Crimson Tide. The ESPN BPI ranks the Tide at No. 13. Jeff Sagarin has the Tide at No. 11. There is also the unpredictability of college basketball. On Tuesday night, Michigan State upset Illinois; a 7-win Kansas State team beat Oklahoma and Baylor struggled to beat 2-win Iowa State.

Even with the unpredictability, top NCAA seeds have easier paths to championships. For a top seed, like Gonzaga, two, three, even four over-matched opponents will precede a serious NCAA Tournament challenge.

The prediction algorithm from Team Rankings gives only five teams a five percent or higher chance to win it all. Gonzaga and Baylor top the list at 29.2 percent and 21.6 percent respectively. The site has eight other teams with chances ranging from 2.3 percent to 6.7 percent. One of the eight is Alabama Basketball, carrying essentially the same odds at 2.5 percent as Florida State and Ohio State.

The Crimson Tide has a chance Wednesday night to further a contender claim. Beating a surging Arkansas team on the road is a greater challenge than what a 2-seed Tide would face in a first or second-round NCAA Tournament game.

A healthier Crimson Tide needs a statement win or two between now and Selection Sunday. It can get one in Fayetteville.