Alabama Basketball: Crimson Tide chances for NCAA 1-seed

Alabama Basketball: A week out from Selection Sunday, reviewing the Crimson Tide’s chances to be an NCAA Tournament 1-seed.

Alabama Basketball has never been an NCAA Tournament 1-seed. Twice the Crimson Tide has entered the NCAA Tournament as a 2-seed; in 1987 and 2002.  Nate Oats team has a chance to do what NCAA bracket experts call, ‘stealing a 1-seed.’ Stealing means a surprise 1-seed team sneaking into the top four on Selection Sunday.

Nothing during conference tournament week will keep Gonzaga and Baylor from being 1-seeds. The same is almost as true for Michigan. That leaves Illinois as the only vulnerable team. Illinois has an advantage from the reputation of the Big Ten. College basketball experts rate the B1G as the top conference, followed by the Big 12. The SEC does not get as much love but is a solid No. 3.

Going into the Big Ten Tournament the Illini have won 11 of their last 12 games, including a 23-point thumping of Michigan on Tuesday. It appears the only teams in position to steal a 1-seed from Illinois are the Crimson Tide, Iowa, Houston and maybe Ohio State.

Should Illinois lose an opening game in the Big Ten Tournament, the Iowa Hawkeyes have the best chance to supplant them in the Big Dance one-line. Iowa is at No. 6 in the NCAA NET ranking, just above the Crimson Tide at No. 7. Iowa survived a stiff test Sunday, beating Wisconsin.

Houston is higher than Iowa, at No. 5, in the NCAA NET. The problem for the Cougars is the American Athletic Conference’s reputation. The AAC only has one good team other than the Cougars  (Memphis) and the league is rated below the top conferences and the ACC, the Big East and the Pac 12. Houston got a three-heave miracle on Sunday to beat Memphis.

Ohio State is clinging to an NCAA NET ranking of No. 9. The Buckeyes have lost four straight games, including a 16-point loss to Iowa. Three of those losses have been at home. To leapfrog the teams above them, the Buckeyes will likely have to win the Big Ten Tournament.

If Illinois stumbles, what will it take for Alabama Basketball to move past them into a 1-seed? Two SEC Tournament wins might be enough for the Crimson Tide. Nate Oats’ team is not expected to lose its 2-seed, even if it loses its opening game in the SEC Tournament. Beat the winner of Kentucky and Mississippi State, followed by a win over the likely matchup of Tennessee and Florida, and the Tide at 23-6 might be in a position to move above Illinois. Win the SEC Tournament and the Tide should pass Illinois, as long as the Illini do not win the Big Ten Tournament.

UPDATE: Baylor beat Texas Tech on Sunday and Michigan was upset by Michigan State.

The Crimson Tide gets an early start Friday in Nashville. The tipoff is at 11:00 AM CST.