Alabama Basketball: SEC ‘Chalk’ and NCAA Bracket thoughts

Alabama Basketball: Count on ‘Chalk’ in SEC Tournament and check out Crimson Tide NCAA Bracket predictions.

Tourney time for Alabama Basketball does not begin until Friday. Some lower-profile conferences have already determined their NCAA Tournament Auto Qualifier teams. Loyola-Chicago, Winthrop, Liberty, UNC-Greensboro, Morehead State and Appalachian State are already in the Big Dance field.

Any Alabama basketball fans looking for a ‘Bracket-Buster’ might want to check out Winthrop. The Eagles are 23-1 with the lone loss in January. Winthrop is in the top 20 teams in Division One in scoring and in the top 10 in rebounding. A high seed taking them likely could be in for a surprise.

In SEC Tournament predictions taking the ‘chalk’ will be a good strategy. As was discussed in our recent SEC Power Rankings, there is a credible argument having LSU as the 4-seed and Tennessee as the 3-seed. Those seedings being flipped does not change the probability of higher-seeded teams winning throughout the SEC Tournament. Texas A&M as the 13-seed is a function of the Aggies playing too few games to qualify for anything but the lowest seed. Otherwise, based on winning percentage, the Aggies would be the 12-seed and Vanderbilt the 13-seed. Their opening game might be a tossup but the higher ‘true-seed’ Aggies are likely to prevail.

Except for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky, the higher seeds look like solid picks on Thursday. The same is true on Friday when Alabama Basketball will be going for a ‘trifecta’ over either the Bulldogs or the Wildcats. A potential Florida vs. Tennesee matchup on Friday has the highest probability of the lower-seeded team winning. Arkansas should certainly advance.

In the semi-final, the Crimson Tide will have a greater challenge than the Hogs. Arkansas likely gets the break of playing the defense-averse LSU Bengal Tigers. Alabama basketball fans will be counting on the chalk holding in the Championship game.

A printable SEC Tournament bracket is available here.

In NCAA Tournament bracket watching, the Crimson Tide’s predicted 2-seed should hold, whatever happens in the SEC Tournament. There is a small chance a loss Friday morning would push the Tide down to a 3-seed, but no lower.

As a Big Dance 2-seed, current bracket predictions have the Crimson Tide opening the NCAA Tournament with either Siena, Bryant, Cleveland State or Grand Canyon. Bryant is perhaps the best of the four, but the Crimson Tide will be in a strong position against any NCAA opening-round opponent.

For anyone wondering, the ‘chalk’ term goes back to blackboard odds written in chalk at horse racing tracks. As the odds changed leading up to a race, the favorites would create a lot of chalk dust, build-up on the large blackboards.