Alabama Basketball: Analyzing teams in the Tide’s way to Sweet 16

Alabama Basketball: Making Bracket picks on 68 teams is fun, but tracking the Tide’s NCAA chances means closely following only a few teams.

For Alabama basketball fans this season is different. Different not just because the Tide owned the SEC, but because of optimistic prospects for the NCAA Tournament.

For most of Alabama Basketball history, NCAA Tournament dreams have been the Tide playing like it belonged in the field and winning a couple of games. There is more optimism and reason for it this year. Nate Oats’ team carries strong odds to make a Sweet 16, good odds to make an Elite Eight and some noteworthy predictions the Crimson Tide can be a Final Four team.

Oats and his players can only focus on one game at a time. Looking past Iona could prove deadly. Alabama basketball fans can do more. Scrutiny can be given to the Tide’s path and what teams Alabama fans may want to follow closely this week.

Having fun picking 67 games is one way to enjoy the Big Dance. Another way for Alabama basketball fans is to drill down on what teams stand in the Crimson Tide’s way, at each stage of the Tournament. For the Tide to get to a Final Four, it does not matter what happens in any region but the East, in which the Tide is the 2-seed. Counting four of the teams in ‘First Four’ games there are potentially 17, East Bracket teams in the Tide’s path to a Final Four.

For now, what matters more is the bottom half of the East bracket. Counting the two ‘First Four’ teams, Michigan State and UCLA, means for Tide fans,  first NCAA week concerns (Thursday through Monday) are eight teams.

As the 2-seed, the Crimson Tide is the ‘Big Dog’ in the grouping of nine teams. Thursday night either the Michigan State Spartans or the UCLA Bruins will be eliminated. The winner will advance against BYU on Saturday. The other four teams in the lower East bracket are 3-seed Texas, vs. 14-seed Abilene Christian and  7-seed Connecticut vs. 10-seed Maryland. The ninth team in the grouping is the Tide’s opening opponent, 15-seed Iona.

More: When Rick Pitino crushed Crimson Tide dreams

Will the chalk of NCAA seeding hold through the first week? Instead of just considering seeding, the ratings compiled by Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin are valuable.

For a frame of reference, in their ranking of all 340 Division One teams, Pomeroy has the Tide No. 8 and Sagarin has the Tide No. 9. Iona is No. 181 per Pomeroy and No. 167 per Sagarin.

The other seven teams are listed below from greatest threat to least threat to the Crimson Tide. The rankings from the two college basketball experts are averaged.

• U Conn – No 19
• Texas – No. 22
• BYU – No. 24
• Maryland – No. 31
• UCLA – No. 44
• Michigan State – No. 47
• Abilene Christian – No. 92

For another point of comparison, the rankings of three SEC opponents are worthwhile. Based on the same average ranking from the two sources, Arkansas is No. 16, Tennessee is No. 19 and LSU is No. 28.

Based on this narrow analysis, the Crimson Tide record of 6-1 against Arkansas, Tennesee and LSU suggests the Tide begins the Tournament with a solid chance to beat Iona and either U Conn or Maryland to advance to the tournament’s week two and the Sweet 16.

Leading up to Saturday’s game, Bama Hammer will take a deep dive into U Conn, Texas, BYU, Maryland, and the winner of the Michigan State vs. UCLA game. We’ll skip Abeline Christian but they are a strong 14-seed Texas cannot afford to take lightly.