Alabama Basketball: Crimson Tide can win without raining threes

Contradicting some national punditry, Alabama Basketball does not ‘live and die’ by shooting the three-ball.

There is considerable work to be done first, but Alabama Basketball fans are asking if the Tide’s game can hold up against top teams in an Elite Eight and beyond. A rising number of college basketball pundits are picking the Tide as a Final Four team.

Alabama basketball fans are filled with enthusiasm. There is considerable confidence the Tide’s defense will not falter. There is even more optimism, the player’s toughness and belief in each other will not waver.

To the extent there is doubt among fans, it is centered on what happens when the Tide is less than explosive on offense. When too many threes don’t find the net, can attacking the rim, making free throws and stellar defense beat an elite opponent?

And two more questions – in the Nate Oats system of play, what is a bad three attempt, and does the Tide take many of those bad shots? Oats wants shots taken early in possessions. He also prefers dribble penetration and a kick-out pass to an open shooter. So no penetration and an early three, after touches by only one or two players, must be a bad shot. Yes and no – missed threes frequently lead to long offensive rebounds, where one quick pass can take advantage of a disorganized defense. Coming out of such a scramble, if the Tide gets the rebound, there will be an open shooter ready for a pass and ready to launch another three.

The willingness to miss and fire again, explains why the Crimson Tide is No. 3 among D1 teams, in made-threes per game. Only Oral Roberts and VMI make more threes per game than the Tide.

Oats and other proponents of volume shooting have proven its effectiveness in producing points. Alabama basketball fans love the Oats system of play. What is unclear is, late in tight games, is a three by some Tide players not a good shot?

The Crimson Tide’s success making threes does not equal the other 2-seeds and the 1-seeds. In that group of seven teams, Baylor is best at 41.8 percent, followed by Michigan at 38.7; Iowa at 38.6; Illinois at 37.6; Gonzaga and Ohio State at 36.5 and Houston at 36.1 percent. On the season, the Tide makes threes at 35.09 percent.

Note: Stats provided by NCAA.

Crimson Tide fans want to know who, in the last possession or two of a tight game, has earned a green light from Nate Oats. Recent Crimson Tide three-point shooting stats are provided below.

• Jahvon Quinerly: Last 8 Games – 45 percent; SEC Tour. – 46.2 percent
• James Rojas: Last 8 Games, but only five attempts, 40 percent; SEC Tour. – 50 percent on two attempts
• Keon Ellis: Last 8 Games – 35.3 percent; SEC Tour. – 40 percent
• Jaden Shackelford: Last 8 Games – 34 percent; SEC Tour. – 38.1 percent
• Jordan Bruner: Last 8 Games – 32 percent; SEC Tour, – 20 percent
• John Petty: Last 8 Games – 31.3 percent; SEC Tour. – 28.6 percent
• Josh Primo: Last 6 Games – 25 percent; One SEC Tour Game with four attempts – 50 percent.
• Alex Reese: Last 8 Games – 23.1 percent; SEC Tour. – 23.1 percent
• Herbert Jones: Last 8 Games – 6.7 percent; SEC Tour. – 0 percent
• Juwan Gary: Also 0 percent but with only two attempts in eight games and none in the SEC Tournament.

Note: Stats compiled from Sports Research website.

Can John Petty push his percentage back up, equal Shackelford or better? Can Quinerly maintain his current, scorching the nets, success? The recent numbers suggest maybe Bruner, Reese, Primo and Herbert Jones might not need to take every open three or any late-game threes.

Only Nate Oats has the answer. An example of why ‘keep shooting’ works was Alex Reese in the LSU game. In the six games preceding the SEC Championship game, Alex Reese was 2-for-16 outside the arc. Alex made two key three-point shots against LSU. They were big makes and without them, the Tide might not have become SEC Tournament Champion.

Big Dance games will reveal to fans answers to the questions posed above. Alabama basketball fans can be confident Nate Oats already has the answers.