Alabama Football: Another way to measure ’21 strength of schedules

Comparing the 2020 Alabama Football schedule with the 2021 schedule is not an apples-to-apples situation. The unique, 2020, All-SEC regular season was different and fun for fans, but the Crimson Tide is back to normal in 2021, with four out-of-conference opponents.

The most well-known Strength of Schedule (SOS) algorithm is provided by ESPN. With the ESPN FPI frequently derided by fans, another SOS measurement might be useful. A couple of weeks ago, Bama Hammer assessed the regular season schedule challenges facing the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs.

Using the ESPN FPI, we decided the Bulldogs have an easier path to Atlanta than does the Crimson Tide. This post moves beyond Alabama Football and Georgia, to review the SOS of every SEC team and a couple of ‘not-SEC’, CFB Playoff contenders.

A simpler mechanism is also used. It is one the NCAA endorses and Phil Steele provides, that calculates SOS rankings from the 2020 regular-season, win-loss records.

Alabama Football and other SEC Teams

Note: Listed from the toughest to least tough schedules

• Arkansas Razorbacks – No. 2 toughest in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 74-41 record in 2020.
• Mississippi State Bulldogs – No. 24 toughest in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 68-53 record last season.
• Auburn Tigers – No. 34 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 61-50 record last season
• South Carolina Gamecocks – No. 54 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 63-56 record last season.
• LSU Bengal Tigers – No. 56 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 61-55 record last season.
• Ole Miss – No. 63 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 65-60 record last season.
• Texas A&M Aggies – No. 64 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 54-50 record last season.
• Alabama Crimson Tide – No. 78 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 57-57 record last season.
• Tennessee Volunteers – No. 87 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 57-59 record last season.
• Vanderbilt Commodores – No. 91 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 47-50 record last season.
• Missouri Tigers – No. 108 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 52-62 record last season.
• Florida Gators – No. 110 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 52-63 record last season.
• Georgia Bulldogs – No. 116 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 51-64 record last season.
• Kentucky Wildcats – No. 128 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 43-66 record last season.

Potential College Football Playoff Teams

• Southern Cal Trojans – No. 7 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 48-32 record last season.
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish – No. 47 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 55-48 record last season.
• Oregon Ducks – No. 97 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 31-34 record last season.
• Ohio State Buckeyes – No. 118 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 38-49 record last season.
• Clemson Tigers – No. 119 in FBS, with 2021 opponents compiling a 46-60 record last season.

The simple comparison of last season’s records does not consider teams getting better and worse in 2021. But it is a benchmark of some value because in college football only a small number of teams have their outcomes significantly change from one season to the next.