Alabama Football: Returning production for Tide opponents and others

Alabama Football fans are fully aware of the offensive production lost from last season’s National Champion. For most programs, the loss of over 6,000 yards from a season of 7,041 yards would mean at least a one-season slide. For many, the slide would be like falling off a cliff.

Given the offensive attrition, those numbers reflect, having to replace an Offensive Coordinator comes at a terrible time for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Which is not disparage Bill O’Brien in the least. But O’Brien must build a new Alabama Football offense without six of the best offensive players to ever suit up in Crimson and White.

The Crimson Tide is not alone. Other CFP contenders are in a similar position. Bill Connelly calculates returning production multiple times in every offseason. This offseason, with the most-ever Transfer Portal activity, Connelly has tried to keep up with multiple updates.

Connelly calculates both sides of the ball, in a complex algorithm, he somewhat explains,

"what I call a team’s returning production percentage … looks at the most predictive key personnel stats — percentage of your QB’s passing yards returning, percentage of your secondary’s passes defensed returning, and everything in between — and is weighted based on what correlates most strongly with year-to-year improvement and regression."

True to the norm for ESPN, algorithms are never explained in detail. To Connelly’s credit, he is a respected cruncher of numbers.

Across all the FBS teams, the norm (over several seasons) for average returning production is 62.6 percent. Connelly’s current calculation shows a 2021 average of 76.7 percent. The bad news for Crimson Tide fans is among the 127 FBS teams who played games last season, Alabama Football is at No. 123.

Alabama Football Not Alone

In similar situations of returning production are Ohio State, Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida and Texas. By a wide margin, Northwestern and BYU have the least returning production.

• No. 118 – Texas – 59 percent
• No. 121 – Florida – 57 percent
• No. 123 – Alabama Crimson Tide – 56 percent
• No. 124 – Notre Dame – 55 percent
• No. 125 – Ohio State – 51 percent
• No. 126 – Northwestern – 39 percent
• No. 127 – BYU – 35 percent

Other SEC Teams and CFP Favorites

• No. 119 – South Carolina – 58 percent
• No. 116 – Tennessee – 60 percent
• No. 112 – Kentucky – 63 percent
• No. 110 – Georgia – 65 percent
• No. 109 – Texas A&M – 65 percent
• No. 96 – Missouri – 71 percent
• No. 80 – LSU – 74 percent
• No. 74 – Auburn – 75 percent
• No. 73 – Oklahoma – 76 percent
• No. 71 – Arkansas – 76 percent
• No. 68 – Mississippi State – 77 percent
• No. 51 – Vanderbilt – 80 percent
• No. 26 – Ole Miss – 86 percent

At 91 percent (No. 13) the Miami Hurricanes return the most production of all the teams on the Alabama Crimson Tide, 2021 regular-season schedule.

Given the wide range of games played by teams in the 2020 season, Connelly says he will provide a later update, compensating for the unusual season.