Does Alabama football have to beat Ole Miss?
When the College Football Playoff era began, it was understood that plenty of one-loss teams would make the field. In fact, the first four champions each suffered one loss in the regular season before the CFP. The past three seasons, the winner has been undefeated, including Alabama football‘s win against Ohio State last year.
Even with multiple teams in one conference making in the same postseason, it is hard to control your own destiny with a loss. Even in some of Alabama football’s championship seasons, you can point to a certain game or play that got them in.
This matters as we prepare for the Tide’s toughest test of 2021. Alabama will host the Ole Miss Rebels, home to the best offense in college football. Ole Miss is undefeated and highly ranked, and they are one of many teams that control their own destiny this season.
Alabama is expected to win this game, but it won’t be easy. Since the Rebels and the Tide are in the same division, the loser of this game will no longer be in the driver’s seat of the conference championship. With that in mind, does Alabama football have to beat Ole Miss if they want to win another title?
It’s hard to see a one-loss Tide team missing the College Football Playoff. When so many teams are already struggling to compete, the field doesn’t seem deep enough to keep the Tide out. However, a few things would have to go their way.
First, two conferences need to have one-loss champions. This would most likely be the ACC and either the Big 12 or the Pac-12. However, any conference has a chance of having a one-loss champion. That would put a one-loss champion against Alabama football, assuming the Tide were to win out but miss their championship game. In this scenario, Alabama likely gets the nod.
It’s safe to assume this is a must-win game for Alabama to reach the SEC Championship. Ole Miss would have to lose two SEC games, which is unlikely with how they are playing.
If you want to look at statistics, you can go to fivethirtyeight.com. According to them, Alabama would still have a 28% chance of making the CFP if they were to lose this weekend. If they were to win out after that game, their odds would rise dramatically.
To put it simply, Alabama can still win a national title if they lose this game. However, they also would lose the ability to control their own destiny, and their margin for error would be turned to zero. They don’t have to win, but they really need a win vs. Ole Miss.