According to WynnBET, Alabama Football is an 18-point favorite Saturday night in College Station. The same source has a published over-under for the Aggies’ score at 17.5 points. Nick Saban’s and Pete Golding’s improving defense is not responsible for such a low points projection. Instead, it is more about Jimbo Fisher’s offense.
How bad is the Aggies’ offense? Senior placekicker, Seth Small has scored more points than the next two leading scorers for the Aggies – combined. Jimbo Fisher’s starting quarterback (since the first half of their second game against Colorado) Zach Calzado gets most of the blame. Statistically, Jimbo’s second-choice QB has not been good. He has five TDs and four interceptions. But the problems go deeper than Calzado.
Part of the problem has been the offensive line. The Aggies offensive line began the season with four new starters, plus future NFL player, Kenyon Green. There have been some injuries causing shuffling, though a stable unit was fielded by the Aggies in the loss to Mississippi State.
Another part of the Aggies’ problems is, for whatever reason, a couple of the best Aggie playmakers have been under-utilized. Future NFL tight end, Jalen Wydermyer has the team’s second-most receptions at 15. For a player., according to Gig’Em Gazette, who will be a first-round pick, 15 catches is not enough from five games. Among SEC players with 50 or more rushing attempts, Isaiah Spiller leads the conference at 6.6 yards per carry. Spiller is averaging less than 14 rushing attempts per game.
A big problem for Jimbo Fisher is his offense is No. 10 in the SEC in third-down conversions, at 41.67 percent. To an extent, fewer catches by Wydermyer and fewer carries by Spiller result from the Aggies not making enough first downs. Even if Fisher wanted, the Aggies cannot afford to push the pace. An already stressed Aggie defense would return to the field quicker if Jimbo tried to ramp up tempo.
The worst stat for the A&M offense is Red Zone scoring. The Aggies are last in the SEC at 75 percent. With only seven touchdowns in 16 Red Zone possessions, Seth Small has made five of six Red Zone field goals.
The A&M defense has some talent. It has been weakened by injuries to cornerbacks, Myles Jones and Brian George. Both of them are now out for the season. But DeMarvin Leal is another Aggie expected to be an NFL first-rounder. Leon O’Neal and Antonio Johnson are good players in the secondary. Only Missouri, Tennessee and LSU have had to defend more plays than A&M. Even with the injuries and the fatigue factor, Mike Elko’s Aggies’ defense is No. 6 in the SEC in average yards allowed per play. They are at 4.68 yards; quite close to the Alabama Football defense at a 4.64-yard average.
Fisher has recruited well enough to compete with Alabama Football. The 2019, 2020 and 2021 A&M signing classes have been ranked No. 4, No. 6 and No. 8. But there is a rapidly growing concern in College Station that Jimbo’s coaching has not adjusted to the new world of college football. As offenses have exploded, one-time National Championship pedigrees mean less and less. If he does not adjust, the game will zoom past him – if it hasn’t already.
What will happen Saturday night? More on that as the week progresses, but for now, it looks like a game where the Crimson Tide just needs to make sure it doesn’t beat itself.