Alabama Football: Playoff thoughts one week before first rankings

On Tuesday night Nov. 2, Alabama Football and other Playoff contenders will see how they are ranked by the CFB Playoff Selection Committee. The FBS now has nine undefeated teams. Three of them, UTSA, San Diego State and SMU can go undefeated and not make the final four.

In addition to the six undefeated Playoff contenders, there are several one-loss teams that are also Playoff contenders. Most college football pundits agree, the one-loss teams with the best chance to make the final four, are the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes.

Not even the best college football prognosticators know what will happen in the final rankings on Sunday, Dec. 5. CBS expert, Jerry Palm is predicting the final four will be: 1) Georgia, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Ohio State and 4) Cincinnati. That indicates Palm believes Alabama Football will lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship game.

Brett McMurphy predicts 1) Alabama, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Georgia and 4) Ohio State. Clearly, McMurphy is predicting an undefeated Georgia team will lose to Alabama Football in the SEC Championship game.

There are dozens of other predictions, including a convoluted set of projections from ESPN that are too cumbersome for comment. Instead of adding our own predictive guess, time is better spent trying to understand how the Selection Committee thinks.

In the first rankings, there will be clues to how the committee views certain teams. The clues will be valuable but they will just be a snapshot, followed by four more weekly snapshots before the final rankings.

Where Alabama Football will be ranked on Nov. 2

Barring a Florida upset, Georgia will be No. 1. After Cincinnati mucked around with Navy, the committee has a reason to start them below No. 2. In the No. 2 through No. 6 slots the committee has to slot the Bearcats, Alabama Football, Oklahoma, the winner of Michigan vs. Michigan State, plus Ohio State (assuming the Buckeyes beat Penn State). Next in the pecking order will most likely be the Wolverines vs. Spartans loser and Oregon.

A guess is the one-loss Alabama Crimson Tide will be between three and five. Assuming Georgia and Ohio State wins on Saturday, the Crimson Tide will be one of only five teams with a win over a currently ranked team. That list would likely drop to four on Sunday, with a three-loss Penn State team becoming unranked. Those four teams; Georgia, Cincinnati, Alabama, and the Michigan vs. Michigan State winner would seem to be locks in the top five spots.

There has been conversation about an 11-2 Crimson Tide (with a loss to UGA) making the final four. No team with two losses has ever made the Playoffs. It would be a long shot again this season. If it were to happen, Alabama football fans could enjoy the national meltdown that would ensue.

Check out the two tweets below.

There is not much to disagree with in the 10-team ranking above. Trading Ole Miss, if they win out, for either Wake or Iowa would be warranted.