The first CFP rankings come out Tuesday night and Alabama football fans are confident the Alabama Crimson Tide will be in the top four. Nationally, there are many, varied predictions of where the top six to eight teams will be ranked.
College Football Playoff rankings history suggests the top four in the first ranking are in a strong position to finish in the top four. There have been a couple of significant exceptions. Ohio State in 2014 came from No. 16 to not only make the final four but to win the National Championship. Oklahoma was No. 15 in the first 2015 rankings but made the final four at the end.
Bill Trocchi of Sporting News provided two more salient points.
"In the last five years, every No. 1 and 2 in the initial rankings has reached the playoffs.No team ranked lower than No. 9 in the initial release has reached the playoff since 2015"
CFP Rankings – What will happen
The Georgia Bulldogs will of course be No. 1. Alabama Football could be ranked at No. 2, but with one loss and a resume diminished from losses by Florida and Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide at No. 2 would be a surprise.
Look for the Selection Committee to go with an undefeated Power Five at No.2. Between Michigan State and Oklahoma, the Spartans are the likely choice.
The Oklahoma resume is so weak, the No. 3 spot will go to Alabama Football instead of the Sooners.
At No. 4, the guess is either Oklahoma or Cincinnati and a hunch is it will be the Sooners.
Outside the top four, expect Ohio State, followed by Cincinnati. Five teams have a chance to land at either No. 7 or No. 8. In no predicted order, they are Oregon, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Wake Forest.
CFP Rankings – What should happen with Alabama Football
A source worth checking out is College Football Playoff Resume Rankings. Without understanding their analytics more, no recommendation is offered on how solid is their data. Their conclusions, however, are plausible and worth a look. The projection below does not match their conclusions but is generally consistent with them.
CFB Rankings – Week One Nov. 2
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Michigan State Spartans
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Oregon Ducks
- Michigan Wolverines
- Cincinnati Bearcats
Like all Alabama football fans, the committee slotting the Crimson Tide at No. 2 would be celebrated.
Bring on the controversy. There will be plenty, starting Tuesday night.