Alabama Football: Not conventional wisdom about National Championship

Let’s get right to the point. Alabama Football will win again on Monday night. The Georgia Bulldogs are certainly good enough to win. The Crimson Tide and the Dawgs are the best two teams in college football by a wide margin. The Bulldogs could win, but there are many reasons why they will not.

Some of the reasons are counter to conventional wisdom regarding the National Championship game. One that jumps out is the supposed difficulty of beating a team twice in a season. As Alabama Football, Defensive Coordinator, Pete Golding said recently, that presumption is faulty. The best team most often wins games and the degree of difficulty is not increased in subsequent games.

What Alabama football fans learned from the SEC Championship game is something the Bulldogs now also know. That is, physical dominance by their heralded defense will not win the game. What happens in the trenches will play a major role in the game, but the Bulldogs cannot ‘big boy’ their way to a victory.

The other often discussed claim for Monday’s game is some forms of ‘exotic’ blitz packages by Georgia will succeed. It is accurate that unless the Dawgs can pressure Bryce Young, they will lose. Kirby’s defense is not designed to rush more than five and the preference is to use only four. If he frequently brings five and even more so, if he dares to bring six, his backside defense will pay the price. The effort would get him some sacks, but it will also cause his vulnerable secondary to be gashed by Young. Kirby is in a most difficult position of ‘damned if you do’ and ‘damned if you don’t’ alternatives.

Can the Bulldogs win because of so many injured Alabama football players? The situation gives the Dawgs their best chance. Having inexperienced cornerbacks, a banged-up offensive line, and the loss of its leading possession receiver would decimate most teams. There is no denying the loss of Josh Jobe, Jaylin Armour-Davis, John Methchie III and possibly Emil Ekiyor is a significant disadvantage. Another serious injury during the game might be a tipping point. But, as long as the Tide does not incur another injury to a key player, it has the roster resources to persevere.

Much has been said about the Bulldogs having an ‘adjustments’ advantage. They will adjust. So will the Crimson Tide. A team, needing to make the most adjustments, has a basic disadvantage. Too many changes and a team risks not playing to its strengths. Trying to be something it is not, will not give Georgia a victory.

Last is the over-hype factor. All season long, conventional wisdom has been the Georgia defense is far better than any other team. In a recent tweet, Cole Cubelic refuted that contention.

Going into the National Championship Game, Alabama has the best offense AND the best defense. Add to that, Nick Saban, and the result is the Crimson Tide has more opportunities to win than do the Bulldogs.

Looking for a score prediction? We’ll provide one closer to the game.