Alabama Basketball: Crimson Tide NCAA Tournament Bracketology

Alabama basketball fans are looking forward to Selection Sunday on Mar. 13. Barring a totally unexpected closing run of six losses for the Crimson Tide, Nate Oats will have the Tide in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time since the 2005 and 2006 seasons.

Almost every credible bracketologist labels the Crimson Tide a ‘lock’ for the Big Dance. Perhaps a ‘near-lock’ might be more accurate. If the loss to Kentucky is followed by four more regular-season losses and a loss in an SEC Tournament game, the Tide will have limped to a 17-15. Teams with 15 losses have received NCAA Tournament at-large bids, but none with as few as 17 wins. Because of its strength of schedule and RPI ranking, the Tide might sneak into the field at 17-15, in a 10-12 seed range.

For the record, the Crimson Tide did gain an at-large bid in 2006 with 17 wins, but Mark Gottfried’s team only had 12 losses. That year the Tide split its two NCAA Tournament games to finish 18-13.

That, however, is not going to happen. Nate Oats’ team will win more games and will not have to sweat another Big Dance appearance. Alabama basketball fans have a reason to be confident about the Tide’s probability of a solid seed in the 5-7 range.

Based on high-profile Bracketoligists, like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm (Palm not updated since Tide’s UK loss) Alabama is currently a solid 5-seed.

Alabama Basketball NCAA Tournament Seeding Scenarios

Note: These predictions are not based on any algorithm and are only guesses of how seeding will evolve based on NCAA Tournament history.

Predicted Regular Season and SEC Tournament Finishes

• 20-12; 3-1 in regular season; 0-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA 5-seed
• 19-13; 2-2 in regular season; 0-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA, lowest 6-seed
• 18-14; 1-3 in regular season; 0-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA 8-seed
• 21-12; 3-1 in regular season; 1-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA 3-seed
• 20-13; 2-2 in regular season; 1-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA Tournament highest 6-seed
• 19-14; 1-3 in regular season; 1-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA Tournament 7-seed
• 22-12; 3-1 in regular season; 2-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA highest 5-seed
• 21-13; 2-2 in regular season; 2-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA Tournament lowest 5-seed
• 20-14; 1-3 in regular season; 2-1 in SEC Tournament; NCAA 6-seed

It is not impossible for the Crimson Tide to finish strongly enough to climb to an NCAA Tournament 4-seed. A projection is not included for that scenario, because it is such an unlikely result.

Bama Hammer will follow the top Barcketologists carefully and update the Tide’s NCAA seeding chances over the next three weeks.