Alabama Football: Latest on CFB win totals and overall team rankings

Not much has changed in terms of Alabama football predictions for the 2022 season. Nearly every credible source has the Alabama Crimson Tide tabbed as CFB’s best team, with high expectations of reaching the National Championship game.

Other teams have been reappraised after some settling time since the end of automatic transfer eligibility for the 2022 season.

The two most frequently mentioned sources for measuring teams are the ESPN FPI and Las Vegas odds. More details are provided below, but in summary, both sources are bullish on the Alabama Crimson Tide.

ESPN’s latest FPI projects only four teams will win 10 or more games. It also gives only eight teams a greater than 8.9% chance to make the CFB Playoffs. The top four in probability are Ohio State (82.7%), Alabama (79.5%) Georgia (75.1%) and Clemson (57.4%). There is a huge dropoff in the next four group, beginning with Notre Dame (18.8%), Texas (18%), Michigan (17.8%) and Oklahoma (11.4%).

Note: While Playoff chances are included in the FPI, ESPN couches the FPI’s probability to predict deserving Playoff teams. Later, as the season plays out, the primary ESPN tool for gauging Playoff chances is provided through the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Purposely, ESPN maintains some mystery about its FPI algorithm. It is designed to refine itself with game results as the season progresses and thereby is more accurate later than sooner. Without insight into the actual calculations about Playoff potential, the predictions appear to be on track. About a month ago, I provided an annual claim, that every season no more than six teams can win a National Championship.

There are surprises in the latest FPI regarding the overall ranking of multiple teams. The most glaring one is the FPI’s bump for Miami up to No. 9 in the overall rankings. The previous FPI had the Canes at No. 18.

The FPI shows considerable confidence in a quick revival of Texas by Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns are at No. 7 overall, one spot higher than the Oklahoma Sooners.

The only SEC teams ranked above the Horns and the Sooners are Alabama at No. 1 and Georgia at No. 3.  Ohio State is No. 2 and other teams in the FPI top ten are Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan at No. 4, 5, and 6, plus LSU at No. 10.

Difficult to understand is the overall ranking of Auburn at No. 11, despite a win-loss prediction that averages out with the Tigers having a 7-5 record.

Alabama Football on Top

Alabama is No. 1 in the FPI overall, with 11.4 projected wins, even though Ohio State at 11.8 and Georgia at 11.6 have slightly higher win projections.

The Crimson Tide and Georgia are on top according to Las Vegas odds. Both teams are at 11.5 wins in the regular season, according to WynnBET.

The Vegas over-under for the Auburn Tigers is 5.5 wins, coming closer than the FPI prediction to a team many think cannot win more than six games.