Alabama Football: Annual look at FBS hot seats and not

For Alabama football fans, hot seat lists are a curiosity. Not since 2006 has a head coach seat been even the slightest bit warm in Tuscaloosa. Again this season, Nick Saban leads any list of FBS coaches whose jobs are ‘locked-in’ secure for the 2022 season.

This time, every year, Dennis Dodd provides Hot Seat rankings for the entire FBS. Dodd’s definition of ‘locked-in’ secure is head coaches who are “untouchable” in the coming season.

Based on Dodd’s list, of the 131 FBS head coaches, 24 are untouchable in their job security. The number might seem high, but most coaches in place at new schools are given untouchable status. Dodd lists the untouchables at ‘0’ and the others at 1-5, with ‘5’ being “win or be fired.”

Based on his history of doing the rankings, Dodd’s rating of ‘4’ and ‘5’ defines a high probability of a firing. This year with the 4 and 5 ratings combined, the total is eight coaches with their jobs on the line.

Maybe future Alabama Football analysts

• Bryan Harsin – Auburn, rated a ‘4’ down from a ‘2’ last year
• Also dropping for a ‘2’ to a ‘4’ are Willie Taggert (FAU), Geoff Collins (Georgia Tech) and Marcus Arroyo (UNLV)
• Dino Babers (Syracuse) and Jake Spavital (Texas State) dropped to a ‘4’ from a ‘3’
• The only two at ‘5’ are Herm Edwards ( Arizona State) and Scott Frost (Nebraska)

Dodd goes into detail to show the accuracy of his ratings for ‘4’ and ‘5’ rated coaches.

"Over the last five years, 23 of the 35 coaches rated 4 or worse in the preseason eventually lost their jobs (66%)."

With Dodd’s track record, the eight listed above (plus a few others whose situation will worsen during the season) may not be head coaches in the 2023 season.

As good as Dodd’s effort is, there are a few curious ratings.

• Hugh Freeze is rated an untouchable (0) which perhaps says as much about Liberty University as it does Freeze.
• Jimbo Fisher is also an untouchable. Jimbo’s job security could plummet this season with anything less than an SEC West championship.
• Gus Malzahn is another untouchable, showing coaching ability is not factored into Dodd’s evaluation.
• Unlike most of the coaches with new gigs, Billy Napier is rated at ‘1’ rather than ‘0’. So are Brent Venables, Dan Lanning and Rhett Lashlee. That makes sense only for Lashlee who must make up for being in the Malzahn coaching tree.
• Eli Drinkwitz is a ‘2’ and I think a ‘4’ is more accurate.
• Mark Stoops improved from a ‘2’ last year to a ‘1’, but surely his success in Lexington makes him an untouchable in the 2022 season.

Some of Dodd’s past correct hot seat predictions that led to firings were Kevin Sumlin (twice), Randy Edsell, Clay Helton, Manny Diaz and Ed Orgeron.