SEC Football: SEC correct to stick to 16 for now, but …

When Matt Hayes of Saturday Down South reported SEC football would be sticking at 16 teams, a qualifier was needed. That qualifier is ‘for now’.

Most SEC football fans are pleased the league feels no short-term need to expand beyond the addition of Texas and Oklahoma. Apparently, the hitting of the brakes was driven by school presidents. At this point, the schools appear to be unified.

An SEC source told Matt Hayes,

"I don’t see any (expansion) move as threatening to us.I’ll put our product vs. anyone’s product. So we’re going to just add schools to add schools? There’s no value in that."

From a revenue perspective, the observation on value is correct. The Pac 12, Big 12 and the ACC need to boost their brands. Improving those brands would garner higher-dollar media deals. The SEC does not need a brand enhancement. Adding Notre Dame could be significant for other conferences but not the SEC. SEC football does not need the Fighting Irish.

Should the Big Ten add Notre Dame and other teams at a future date, the SEC may be interested in moving beyond 16 teams. There is a sense if the SEC expands again it will stick to a regional footprint. That might include teams in Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas.

From the current SEC perspective, not every FBS school in those states adds more revenue than the distribution of monies to teams, being diluted by more teams. At most only a few teams add bottom-line value.

Did the high cost of exiting the ACC impact the SEC’s decision? Quite possibly, it did. ACC schools, saddled by huge exit fees and no control over their media rights until the 2030s, might have found realignment too costly.

Fortunately, the SEC is in such a strong position, that it can be patient. Not immediate, but now moving to the forefront of college football’s next big move is CFB Playoff expansion. There is no indication Greg Sankey has moved from what he said about CFB Playoff expansion several weeks ago.

Sankey prefers an eight-team field, but he would also accept a 12-team Playoff field. In neither case, is he prepared to accept automatic qualifiers defined by conference championships.

 What could trigger more SEC Football realignment sooner than later?

• A defection from the ACC, after a successful challenge to the league’s ‘Grant of Rights’ (GOR) agreement. If the GOR cannot survive a legal challenge, multiple ACC teams may choose to exit.
• A desire by Vanderbilt or Missouri to move to a less competitive conference.
• The Big Ten moving to 20 teams, including Notre Dame and a couple of strong brand, Pac 12 or ACC programs.

A best guess today is that of the three circumstances above, only the third one has much of a chance of happening.

Whatever does or does not happen, it is no longer expected to transpire quickly.