Alabama football fans are not overly concerned over how the CFB Playoff will expand. When it does (not if) Alabama Crimson Tide fans are confident in every worthy Alabama team being in the Playoff field.
For SEC Commissioner, Greg Sankey the expansion issue is more complicated. Sankey must represent the best interest of all SEC teams. In any given season, he is not willing for a worthy SEC team to be excluded by less worthy teams making an eight or twelve-team field. For that reason, Sankey is opposed to certain conference champions being given automatic qualification.
Backtracking a bit, in a 12-team proposal Sankey helped craft, there were automatic qualifiers. Six auto bids were to go to the top six conference champions each season. While it would have been likely that the champions of all the current Power Fives would be included, there was no guarantee. The standard was the top six conference champions. So if a Power Five champion was not ranked in the top six, it would not receive an automatic bid.
In more recent conversations about CFB Playoff expansion, Sankey has discussed a different expansion plan.
"I’ve been open in public that eight teams without automatic qualifiers is something we have an interest in exploring."
Based on recent CFB Playoff fields, the more recent Sankey idea could make it difficult for a Pac 12 champion to qualify. Once Oklahoma and Texas are SEC teams, the Big 12 could be in a similar situation to the Pac 12. Potentially, taking the top eight ranked teams could often mean three, four or more of the eight slots would go to SEC teams.
What will eventually happen cannot be predicted. In 2022, there is no urgency. That will change before the end of 2023.
Until then. there is a measurement to consider that reinforces Sankey’s position. That measurement is Strength of Record (SOR). There is more than one SOR calculation. For this discussion, the one chosen is part of the ESPN FPI.
Using last season’s ESPN, SOR, below are the Playoff teams most likely to have been in the two proposed Playoff expansion formats.
CFB Playoff: 12-team field (auto bids to top 6, ranked conference champions)
Note: SOR rankings are in parentheses.
- Auto bids: Alabama (2); Michigan (3); Cincinnati (6); Baylor (7); Louisiana (11) and Pittsburgh (21). The Pac12 Champion, Utah (27) would not have received an automatic bid.
- The other six teams would have been Georgia, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Ole Miss.
CFB Playoff: 8-team field (with no auto bids)
- Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Baylor and Ohio State.
- The ACC and Pac12 Champions, Pittsburgh and Utah would not have made the Playoffs if the sole calculation had been SOR.
Wisely, the CFB Playoff Selection Committee considers SOR, along with other measurements to choose Playoff participants. Whatever eventual expansion format is ultimately chosen, judgment by the committee in picking the best teams will be essential.
The most recent idea from Greg Sankey is arguably the best expansion plan. Allow the committee to choose what it believes to be the eight best teams. If in a particular season, the SEC gets four of the slots it would not be unfair.
Once serious discussions re-commence, hopefully, a sensible expansion format will gain a majority vote.