Alabama Football: Main reason Mississippi State not a trap game

Some Alabama football fans are concerned the Crimson Tide’s Oct. 22 date with Mississippi State could be a trap game.

There are circumstances that suggest such a conclusion. It will be the eighth consecutive game for the Crimson Tide and there is a risk both physical and mental fatigue could be a problem. The game also follows three more high-profile and likely intense games; at Arkansas, Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa, and at Tennessee. Such a situation often leads to the better team being so ‘flat’ the lesser team has enhanced chances for an upset.

A counter perspective is no matter the effects of possibly being tired and flat, Alabama will win by a wide margin. Mississippi State will not beat Alabama. Beyond having the far more talented roster, the Bulldogs – or more precisely, Mike Leach’s offense does not match up well with the Crimson Tide defense.

Leach is famous for his version of the very old ‘Air Raid’ offense. In stops at Texas Tech and Washington State the Leach ‘fill the air with footballs’ scheme was often highly effective. Leach took the Texas Tech offense from 363 yards per game to 531 yards in 2008.

His first Washington State offense in 2012 produced 360 yards-per-game in route to a 3-9 season. Leach ramped the Cougars up to 514 yards-per-game in 2014, with the same 3-9 result. In 2018, Washington State went 11-2 with 453 yards per game.

Mike Leach’s often impressive offensive production and sometimes impressive seasons were accomplished in conferences that offered less defensive resistance than the SEC. Even playing against lesser defenses, in 18 seasons at the two schools, Leach’s teams won more than eight games in a season only seven times. Only twice did they win more than nine games in a season.

Calling Mike Leach an offensive genius requires ignoring his genius has never consistently delivered a top team. No doubt, he has a sharp offensive mind and has used it to make many less gifted athletes productive.

Very little of that translates to being competitive in the SEC, particularly in the SEC West. When Leach’s first Bulldogs team opened the 2020 season with an upset of LSU, headlines buzzed about the SEC’s newest explosive offense. The proof was 623 yards through the air against the Bengal Tigers. When the season ended, a collapsed LSU program posted a 5-5 record, along with being last in the conference in pass defense.

After two seasons in Starkville, Leach is 11-13, following seven wins in 2021. In 2022, the Bulldogs might win another seven games. They are as likely to win just six games as they are to win eight.

Alabama Football and several other SEC defenses

SEC defenses are not just tough and physical. They are (most of them) tough, physical and fast. Too fast, too smart and too physical to be outplayed by a maybe-not, offensive genius. Alabama football will have all those components in its 2022 defense. And it will be way too much for Leach and the Bulldogs.

Note: Mike Leach career data provided by the Sports Reference site for college football.

Against the Crimson Tide last season in Starkville, the Leach offense made 24 first downs and zero touchdowns. Look for more of the same in 2022.