Alabama Football: How many points to beat the Tide?

Alabama football fans know Nick Saban hates hypothetical questions. As fans, we are not restricted from conjecture and today’s media world would be close to mute without it.

So let’s jump into an important hypothetical for the 2022 Alabama Crimson Tide season. Like all speculation, there are gray areas with unpredictable results. Despite those degrees of unknown, this theoretical question is straightforward – how many points will it take for an opponent to beat the Crimson Tide.

First, let’s consider what Crimson Tide is being measured. It is a team without any serious injuries to its starters on both sides of the ball. It is a team that does not gift an opponent through turnover-caused points, or more simply stated, does not beat itself. Plus, it is a team not playing through adverse game conditions caused by weather. It is also a team that is not missing any of its coaching staff either in preparation for or during a game.

More ‘what if’ adversities could be added to the four above. No matter how many more might be added, unpredictable events in games can lead to unpredictable outcomes.

Next, come presumptions about the 2022 Crimson Tide. Last season, the offense was not consistently good at running the ball. An example is 1.9 rushing yards per carry against Auburn. Too often the pass protection was weak. Examples are four sacks by Texas A&M and LSU and seven sacks by Auburn.

Against those three teams, third-down conversions were a problem. The Crimson Tide was 9-for-19 against the Aggies, 4-for-13 against LSU, and 8-for-22 against Auburn. In some games penalties were a contributing factor. The biggest problems came from a sub-par performance by the Alabama football offensive line.

2022 Alabama Football Presumptions

• A better and more consistent performance by the Tide offensive line
• A stronger more consistent running game
• The two improvements above will balance out any weakness at wide receiver.
• The result is, offensively Alabama will be as least as good as last season.
• The defense will be improved and even against strong offenses will get off the field more frequently, giving the Tide offense more possessions.

Based on those presumptions, regular-season opponents will not be able to score enough points to beat the Crimson Tide. Unless the Tide has games in which it beats itself, the best opponents will be forced to score in the range of 39-49 points to win (and in some games even more). And on the 2022 Crimson Tide defense, that will not be possible.

Note: 2021 Alabama Crimson Tide stats from rolltide.com and ESPN Team Stat data.

Fall camp is just a few weeks away. The rumor in Tuscaloosa is this season, media viewing periods during practices will return.