CFB Playoff: Why a 16-team format is a bad idea

Slowly and without much clarity, the conversation about a CFB Playoff format change is showing signs of progress. The clearest sign came this week from Big Ten Commissioner, Kevin Warren. Warren has moved from a previous position and described it as softening his stance. Speaking about automatic qualifiers, Warren said,

"I’m going to soften my stance on it. I just feel like we have to give some credit for conference regular-season success. Now, whatever that looks like, I don’t know."

What it might look like is no automatic qualifiers for every Power Five conference. In the past failed effort to expand the format, Warren sided with the Pac 12 and the ACC who demanded their conference champions, and the other Power Five champions must get automatic berths.

Since then there have been indications the SEC’s Greg Sankey will never let that happen. Warren and Sankey are the kingpins and Warren has recently praised Sankey saying about the two of them,

"he and I were both trained by Mike Slive"

His added praise of Greg Sankey was glowing.

"I have the utmost respect for him. He’s really smart. He is tough. He’s fearless. He does not care what people think. He doesn’t think like your normal, long-term college administrator. He’s been really good to work with because he challenges the status quo, and he’ll tell you in front of you what he thinks, which I appreciate."

There is a bigger reason for Warren to align himself with Sankey. At 16 or more teams (after USC and UCLA make the move from the Pac 12) the B1G, like the SEC, needs a chance of 3-4 Playoff slots every season.

Whatever the final number of teams becomes for the two conferences, the third and fourth best teams should not be excluded by a weaker conference champion.

One approach mentioned by Warren is a 16-team CFB Playoff field. John Scimeca, writing for Saturday Blitz laid out what a 16-team Playoff format would have been last season. Fans of some lesser programs would love it, but some fans of true National Championship contending programs would hate it.

Why CFB Playoff should not be 16 teams

Last season, Alabama as the No. 1 seed would have played the No. 16 seed, Northern Illinois. No. 2 seed Michigan would have played No. 15, UTSA and No. 3 Georgia would have played No. 14 Utah State.

The three highest seeds would have certainly won their first-round Playoff games. But the question is, at what price? What if against a team with zero chance of becoming National Champion, either Bryce Young or Will Anderson Jr. (or worse, both) had been lost to season-ending injuries? Suddenly one of the few legitimate contenders to win the National Championship would be significantly hampered because of a useless and pointless contest.

A far better idea (along with no automatic qualifiers) is a 12-team field with the top four seeds getting byes and possibly even a home game in the second round. That is how to do as Kevin Warren asks, and make the regular season matter.

The CFB Playoff expansion debate will likely continue for another 12-18 months before the issue is resolved. At least some progress is being made.