College Football: Will a patient SEC have to play catch-up in realignment?

College football realignment may be moving faster than was expected. The Big Ten Commissioner, Kevin Warren has been clear that the B1G expects to add more teams. That might be happening now.

A couple of days ago, Dennis Dodd of CBS said,

"At some point during the season, the Big Ten will announce further expansion and revenue sharing with the players, thereby lapping the SEC not only in dollars but prestige and recruiting. These could be the checkmate moves commissioner Kevin Warren wants to make."

Before considering whether the SEC is vulnerable to being checkmated, let’s review what is currently going on with the Big Ten. On Monday, Twitter was spinning that the Oregon Ducks and the B1G were involved in discussions. The initial information was discounted by a counterclaim that neither the Oregon President or the Oregon Athletic Director were talking with the Big Ten.

Apparently, on their behalf, others were doing the talking.

On Tuesday more reports indicated the conversations were more than preliminary. There has been broad speculation the Big Ten is interested in Oregon, plus Washington, Stanford and Cal. It has also been suggested some Big Ten schools were unconvinced the four schools would add enough value.

What the B1G wants more than anything is Notre Dame, but it appears the Irish, with three years left on their NBC deal, want to wait and see what evolves.

What could have recently changed, making Oregon and other Pac 12 programs more attractive, is the new Big Ten media rights deal. According to Jon Wilner of the Bay Area News Group,

"The Big Ten’s new media rights contract, worth approximately $7.5 billion over seven years, includes an escalator clause — in the event of membership expansion — that pushes the total value to $10 billion."

It appears Kevin Warren has effectively greased the wheels to make adding four Pac 12 programs a sound business decision. Will it happen soon? The SEC and Greg Sankey should not mimic Notre Dame’s ‘wait and watch’ plan.

No sharper mind in College Football than Greg Sankey

Sankey is astute. He is also bold. No doubt, he is evaluating all options while having less public conversations than the Big Ten.

On Tuesday, James Parks reported Florida State is looking for a new conference.

"School president Richard McCullough recently met with the Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce and let it be known that Florida State is ready for anything.)McCullough said) ‘It’s something I’m spending a lot of time on and we’re getting a lot of help. We’re trying to do anything we can to think about how we remain competitive. Florida State is expected to win. We’re going to be very aggressive.’"

Because of the ACC’s ‘Grant of Rights’ deal, any program leaving the ACC in the next few seasons might have to pay up to $100M. That number makes it harder for ACC programs to realign – but not impossible.

If the SEC were to, at some point, pull in FSU, Miami, Clemson and either North Carolina or North Carolina State, the ACC would whither, just as it appears the Pac 12 may soon do.

It is not far-fetched to think, in the not distant future, college football will be driven by the SEC, the Big Ten, and a third, newly constructed Power Three.