Bama Hammer
Fansided

Alabama Football: Five reasons why Longhorns in big trouble

By Ronald Evans

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - JANUARY 10: Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Georgia Bulldogs at Lucas Oil Stadium on January 10, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - JANUARY 10: Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Georgia Bulldogs at Lucas Oil Stadium on January 10, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

It is possible that never before has a one-sided Alabama football game been so hyped. According to FanDuel, the spread favoring the Crimson Tide is 20.5 points. Yet, some college football pundits suggest the game will be much closer.

It is hard to understand why. No doubt 2022 Texas will be better than the team that was 5-7 last season. How much better is not known. Countering improvement by Texas is Alabama will be better in 2022 as well. My hunch is more than some better. As in more like undefeated better.

The Texas game may not be a stern test. But, in August, according to ESPN’s FPI, Texas had the best chance for an upset among all the Tide’s regular season opponents. The second-best chance was projected to be LSU. The ESPN calculation was Texas had a 24.7% chance of winning. The most recent FPI calculation gives Texas an 18.1% chance to win.

Based on no algorithm, my guess is the chance of a Texas upset is less than 10%. Below are five reasons why I hold such confidence and one reason why Texas might have a double-digit percentage chance of an upset.

Alabama Football: Five Reasons Horns in Big Trouble

  • Texas quarterback, Quinn Ewers and freshman left tackle, Kelvin Banks have never competed against what they will face Saturday. Simply put, they have been told and shown what is coming, but have never experienced competing against so many exceptional football players. They may play well, but the likelihood of multiple key mistakes is high.
  • Road games are supposed to give home teams an advantage because of crowd noise. In Austin, Alabama’s defense will have an advantage in being able to hear when Texas has the ball. The Darrell K. Royal Stadium crowd will be crazy loud when Alabama has the ball, but nothing rattles the calmest football player in the nation, Bryce Young.
  • Heat will not be a factor. As Crimson Tide players have said this week, August, fall camp days have been just as hot in Tuscaloosa. The Tide will be hydrated and physically ready. Plus it will be hot for both teams and Alabama has better depth to rotate.
  • Kelvin Banks and the rest of the Texas offensive line, including another freshman, guard Cole Hutson will struggle to protect Ewers, especially when the Tide employs the pass-rushing trio of Will Anderson Jr., Chris Braswell and Dallas Turner.
  • Pocket pressure will not just come from the edges. Alabama will push the pocket on the interior. Cole Hutson and Texas center, Jake Myers will be overwhelmed by the rotation of D.J. Dale and Jaheim Oatis.

The one thing in favor of Texas comes from the experience Steve Sarkisian and AJ Milwee have against Pete Golding’s play-calling. It will not affect the outcome of the game, but Golding’s tendencies will be fully understood by the two Texas coaches.

Next. Crimson Tide record against Texas is embarrassing. dark

Check-in with Bama Hammer on Saturday morning for an Alabama Football score prediction.

Home/Alabama Football