Another week and another Alabama Football cover against the spread last week. This week some Crimson Tide fans are surprised Alabama is favored by over two touchdowns against Arkansas. The game is in Fayetteville and absent some bad luck last week in Arlington, TX, Arkansas would still be an undefeated team.
Now the Razorbacks are facing a must-win game. A loss would likely mean the Hogs, in just a two-week span, would drop from No. 10 in both the polls to possibly outside the Top 25.
Alabama Football vs. Arkansas Spread Week Five
FanDuel has the Crimson Tide as an early week, 17-point favorite. The over/under is set at 60.5 points. The Moneyline is Alabama minus-880 and Arkansas plus-580.
The spread has gone up from 14.5 points on Sunday.
Alabama Football vs. Arkansas Game Prediction
When Arkansas last beat Alabama, Mike Shula was in his last season as the Alabama Crimson Tide head coach. The Alabama loss was then the seventh for the Crimson Tide, against five wins, going back to the 1995 season. Nick Saban changed things quickly. In 2007, Alabama was coming off a 6-7 season and the Alabama 41-38 win over Arkansas signaled a major uptick in Crimson Tide fortunes. The Crimson Tide scored with eight seconds left in the game.
Arkansas is a tough football team accustomed to a physical style of play. In an earlier post, I discussed why Alabama is the SEC’s most efficient rushing team. Arkansas is very good on the ground as well, and while not the SEC’s best rushing attack, the Hogs can crank out yards.
The biggest problem for the Hogs is their strength goes against Alabama’s strength. The Crimson Tide is the SEC’s best in run defense.
Arkansas quarterback, KJ Jefferson is a punishing runner, but he is a competent passer as well. Spying him might be part of the Tide’s defensive plan.
I can see a pumped-up Arkansas team keeping the game close into the third quarter (and maybe longer). But I can’t see the Hogs out-scoring the Crimson Tide.
My best, early-week guess is the Crimson Tide is not a sure bet to cover the spread.
Alabama 34- Arkansas 17
Not to hedge the prediction, but Alabama, at the top of its game, could win by three or more touchdowns.
Point Spreads for other SEC teams
- Georgia is a 28-point road favorite against Missouri
- Mississippi State is a 3.5-point favorite at home against Texas A&M
- Ole Miss is a 6.5-point favorite at home against Kentucky
- LSU is an 8.5-point road favorite against Auburn
The LSU-Auburn game will be interesting. There have been rumors of some Auburn assistants ready for Bryan Harsin’s exit. Will the Tigers continue to fight for their embattled coach?