Alabama Football: Crimson Tide needs another Arkansas miracle

A gift from the Arkansas Razorbacks to Alabama Football is needed on Saturday. Why that might matter is the Razorbacks host LSU and an Arkansas win would give LSU two SEC losses on the season.

An LSU team with two SEC losses would still go to Atlanta over an Alabama Crimson Tide with two SEC losses, because of a head-to-head tiebreaker. Yet, Alabama while winning out the regular season can still make Atlanta if LSU loses on Saturday and in College Station on the last Saturday of the SEC regular season.

How likely is it that LSU loses twice? The ESPN FPI projects an 87.4% probability the Bengal Tigers will win the SEC West. That percentage feels right, but there are a few reasons that suggest the percentage might be lower. Check them out below.

• The Razorbacks are pretty solid against the run, at No. 5 in average rushing yards allowed among SEC teams – in games against Power Five teams with winning records.
• Arkansas was embarrassed last week in a 21-19 loss to Liberty. Liberty had a three-touchdown lead before the Hogs scored. Arkansas came back to almost tie the game late. After video review, a two-point conversion run by KJ Jefferson was ruled as short, though Jefferson got the ball into the end zone. The Hogs will be highly motivated to redeem themselves.
• There is always a risk that following a big win, a team is flat in the next game. If LSU does come out flat in Fayetteville and momentum is gained by the Hogs, an upset could happen.

The Bengal Tigers are only small favorites at 3.5 points, according to FanDuel. Arkansas is due for a good game. The Razorbacks began the season 3-0, but since have won only two of six games. The two wins were over BYU and Auburn.

An Alabama Football Memory

Alabama football fans rooting for Arkansas, do so with a memory of an Arkansas miracle that saved a season for the Alabama Crimson Tide. In the 2015 season, Ole Miss, because of beating the Crimson Tide in September, was 7-2 (with one SEC loss) going into a home game against Arkansas.

Arkansas won in overtime; but would have lost, except for a miracle 4th-and-25 conversion. As he was being tackled, Arkansas tight end, Hunter Henry, threw the ball blindly, back over his head. The wild lateral worked and magically led to Alabama being the SEC West representative in Atlanta.

Perhaps Alabama might have made the 2015 Playoffs without becoming the SEC Champion. But, perhaps not; and in that sense, the Arkansas miracle play paved the way for an Alabama Football 2015 National Championship.