Alabama Football: CFB Playoff chances and Bowl game probabilities

For the 10-2, Alabama football team what comes next is waiting. The waiting period has two stages. First is the next CFB Playoff rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 29. Then there will be a few important football games and the final Playoff rankings on Sunday, Dec. 4.

How the CFB Playoff Selection committee ranks the Crimson Tide and a couple of other teams on the 29th will be telling.

Since the loss to LSU, the Crimson Tide’s chances of gaining a Playoff slot have appeared to be slim. On Saturday night, with the Texas A&M upset of LSU, the Tide’s chances improved. According to the ESPN FPI, Alabama now has the fifth-best chance of making the Playoffs at 14.4%.

Ahead of the Crimson Tide in Playoff probability are Georgia at 99.4%, Michigan at 97.2%, Ohio State at 88.4% and TCU at 53.9%. USC is slightly behind Alabama at 12.2%.

Opposite from the ESPN algorithm, ESPN’s Playoff, human experts all predict neither Alabama nor Ohio State make the final four.

There will be considerable debate and most of it will center on how much conference championships should count versus ‘best teams’ conclusions. On Saturday night, Kirk Herbstreit agreed with a consensus top four but had a different opinion on Ohio State.

Many Alabama football fans disagree about USC, based on the Trojans having played such a weak schedule. The best teams USC has beaten are Notre Dame and UCLA, leading to a strength of record close to the Crimson Tide, but a strength of schedule that does not come close to Alabama’s.

During the Alabama Football waiting period, it is possible Kansas State beats TCU or Utah beats USC.  Purdue could upset Michigan, though the Wolverines might not get bumped by the loss. TCU might also lose and still get in the Playoff field rather than the Crimson Tide.

Alabama Football Playoff Path

The Crimson Tide’s simplest and perhaps surest path to the final four is a Utah win over USC. Then it would come down to the Crimson Tide or the Buckeyes for the final Playoff slot.

While almost the entire college football world will erupt if the Crimson Tide makes the Playoff field, that should not affect the Selection Committee’s decisions. Nick Saban will lobby for his team and the argument is sound. Two SEC road losses by a total of four points should not mean the Crimson Tide is not one of the four best teams.

What will happen? Most likely Alabama will play Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl at 11:00 AM CST on Dec. 31.