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Alabama vs. Kansas State prediction and odds for Sugar Bowl (Crimson Tide rolls)

By Reed Wallach

Sep 24, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Will Anderson Jr. (31) sacks Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback AJ Swann (13) for a loss at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 24, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Will Anderson Jr. (31) sacks Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback AJ Swann (13) for a loss at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports /
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Alabama’s season-long goal of making the College Football Playoff and eventually the National Championship wasn’t to be, but the team is still in a New Year’s Six Bowl game as they are set to face Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl.

While opt outs are always concern for a team like Alabama that has a ton of NFL talent, the team is expected to have nearly all of their key contributors on hand for their bowl game against Kansas State, namely future top 10 picks quarterback Bryce Young and pass rusher Will Anderson.

The Crimson Tide will look to finish what is a down year for their standards with a Sugar Bowl victory against a formidable Kansas State team that has one of the most dynamic running backs in college football in Deuce Vaughn.

Here are the updated odds for this New Year’s Eve showdown and our best bets:

Alabama vs. Kansas State Odds, Spread and Total

Alabama vs. Kansas State Betting Trends

  • Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 11-8 against the spread (ATS) in bowl games at Alabama
  • Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman is 1-1 ATS in bowl games as head coach
  • Kansas State is 9-3-1 ATS this season

Alabama vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick

After shrinking to a three-point favorite on the expected news that the Crimson Tide will have a host of opt outs, this line has shot out past -6 with the report that both Young and Anderson will suit up and play in the Sugar Bowl.

This line movement makes sense and should hint towards the motivation of the SEC team to compete in this one.

The Tide do present some matchup issues for the Wildcats in this one as the team is built around their stout secondary (15th in EPA/Pass), but do struggle against the run (80th in EPA/Rush) and they should be able to keep a lid on K-State’s run game that sets up their passing game. Alabama allows 3.51 yards per carry (23rd in the country) and also are top 20 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Kansas State has two capable quarterbacks that do two different things. Run-first signal caller Adrian Martinez missed the last few games with a leg injury and was replaced by a better passer in Will Howard. Martinez may see some reps in certain packages, but he is not as much of a threat in the passing game. If the Tide are able to stuff the run and force the Wildcats into passing downs, where the team is overly reliant on explosive plays. However, with a pass rush that is led by Anderson (10 sacks) that is 13th in the nation in sacks and fifth in limiting explosive passes, I will bank on Nick Saban’s bunch to win this matchup.

Ultimately, the opt-in’s from Alabama show me that there is motivation from this team to be on the field, and the team has the ability to shut down the Kansas State defense while also gashing them on the ground to open up Young and the passing game. I’ll lay this spread up to a touchdown.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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