Alabama Basketball: SEC standings and SEC Big Dance chances

For most SEC teams, three more gamedays will mark the halfway point in the SEC regular season. For Alabama Basketball, one of those gamedays will include an away trip to play Big 12 team, Oklahoma.

Even with a week, plus another Tuesday left in January play, what will play out through February and end on Mar. 4, is becoming clear for some SEC teams. Maybe Arkansas, at 2-5 in SEC play can re-make itself into a consistently formidable foe. The other currently five and six-loss SEC teams, South Carolina (1-5), Mississippi State (1-6), Ole Miss (1-6) and LSU (1-6) are fast approaching ‘wait until next year’ seasons. That does not mean the last four cannot and will not pull off some upsets.

Arkansas, on the basis of its early season play, holds on to a No. 27 NET ranking. Similar early season success still gives Mississippi State a No. 63 NET ranking. Ole Miss, LSU, Georgia and South Carolina are all out of the Top 100 in the current NCAA NET rankings.

Based on the NCAA Tournament prediction algorithm from Team Rankings, six SEC teams have a 13% chance or lower to make the Big Dance. They are Vandy (13%), Mississippi State (5%), Ole Miss (3%), Georgia (0%), LSU (0%), and South Carolina (0%).

Alabama Basketball leads NCAA Tournament Locks

The flip side of those predictions has three SEC teams as NCAA Tournament locks. At 100% are Alabama, Tennessee and Auburn. Arkansas is at 95%, Kentucky at 69%, Florida at 58%, Texas A&M at 39% and Missouri at 22%.

SEC Basketball Standings (after games of Jan. 21)

Note: The NCAA NET ranking is included below. Other important sources are ESPN’s BPI, KenPom, the KPI and Jeff Sagarin. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee evaluates all these sources. The traditional AP and Coaches Polls are basically meaningless.

Alabama Basketball is rated No. 1 in the KPI and No. 2 by Sagarin.

• No. 1 – Alabama Crimson Tide 7-0 and 17-2 overall. NCAA NET No. 3
• No. 2 (tie) – Tennessee Vols 6-1 and 16-3. NCAA NET No. 2; Auburn Tigers 6-1 and 16-3. NCAA NET No. 21
• No. 4 – Texas A&M Aggies 5-1 and 13-6. NCAA NET No. 53
• No. 5 (tie) – Kentucky Wildcats 4-3 and 13-6, NCAA NET No. 38; Florida Gators 4-3 and 11-8. NCAA NET No. 45
• No. 7 (tie) – Vanderbilt Commodores 3-3 and 10-9. NCAA NET No. 85; Georgia Bulldogs 3-3 and 13-6. NCAA NET No. 105
• No. 9 – Missouri Tigers 3-5 and 14-5. NCAA NET No. 58
• No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks 2-5 and 13-6. NCAA NET No. 27
• No. 11 – South Carolina Gamecocks 1-5 and 8-11. NCAA NET No. 282
• No. 12 (tie) – LSU Bengal Tigers 1-6 and 12-7. NCAA NET No. 128; Mississippi State Bulldogs 1-6 and 12-7. NCAA NET No. 63; Ole Miss Rebels 1-6 and 9-10. NCAA NET No. 104

There will assuredly be upsets. Nationally, on Saturday, based on AP Poll rankings, No. 2, Kansas, No. 5 UCLA, No. 12 Iowa State and No. 17 Miami all lost. Only two lost to ranked teams.