Alabama has amassed one of the best profiles in the country, the class of the SEC to date and now get an opportunity to beat up on a middling foe in Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs have struggled on offense in league play, and that’s going to be an issue against one of the most prolific offenses in the country in Alabama, who has scored 80 or more points in three of their last four.
Will the Crimson Tide keep it rolling at home and cover the double digit spread? Possibly, but I’m looking elsewhere for my favorite bet in this one, so let’s check out the odds:
Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds, spread and total
Mississippi State vs. Alabama prediction and pick
I think this is setting up for an Alabama blowout win, but the betting market is wise to that with the Tide laying double digits.
Instead, I’ll go with the under as Mississippi State’s offense is going to struggle to do its part to get over the total.
The Bulldogs have an effective field goal percentage of 40.1% in SEC play while shooting 24% from beyond the arc. This flies with the team’s season long trend of being a poor offensive team, they are shooting 28% from beyond the arc, so this isn’t some outlier run for the Bulldogs.
Now, they will face a Crimson Tide team that is dominant on both ends and particularly stout on the interior, posting the best defense at the rim this season, per Haslametrics.
Alabama loves to play fast and get shots up, the team plays at the fourth fastest pace in the country, but the Bulldogs post the 11th best defensive efficiency rating in the country, per KenPom. It also helps their cause that they are owed some three-point regression in SEC play. Opponents are shooting 38% from three in the seven game sample, but on the year this is a top third perimeter defense, I think we see a better effort to slow down the Alabama three-point barrage.
Mississippi State has scored 60 or more points in two of seven SEC games, and I think they struggle in this one as well, leading to an under game.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.