Alabama Basketball: Why ebbing Tide is no cause for concern

A more accurate title for this Alabama Basketball update would have used the past tense of ebb. As in, an ‘ebbed’ Tide was not damaged by the loss to Tennessee in Knoxville.

Alabama ebbed against Tennessee, but in no way does that indicate a forward progression for the Crimson Tide. In one way the loss, as many algorithms predicted would happen, was valuable. It was an unusually physical game and fouls that could have been called were allowed. This is not to say the Crimson Tide lost because of officiating. There were some bad calls made, particularly some charge/block ones, but most of the game’s officiating resembled a ‘let’em play’ attitude from past decades. In the NCAA Tournament, Alabama could again face Tennessee or another smothering defense from Houston. Lessons learned Wednesday night should help the Tide prepare for a future, ‘let’em play’ game.

SEC Regular Season

After Wednesday’s games, the Crimson Tide has a one-game lead over Texas A&M for the SEC Regular Season Championship. The teams finish the regular season in College Station. Before then, Alabama has Georgia at home, South Carolina on the road, followed by Arkansas and Auburn at home. The Aggies go to Missouri, host Tennessee, and then travel to Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Alabama’s closing schedule is not easy, but the schedule for A&M is a bit tougher because of more road games.

Can any other team win the SEC? Tennessee has four SEC losses. Auburn and Kentucky have five. The Crimson Tide remains a heavy favorite, projected at 93.9% to win the SEC regular season. Three weeks out, Alabama and Tennessee are both heavy favorites to win the SEC Tournament.

For Alabama Basketball, what matters more

What matters more is the NCAA Tournament. Based on any credible source, Alabama remains a consensus, projected 1-seed; just not the overall No. 1 seed, after losing to Tennessee. The two most valuable, results-based projections, the SOR and the KPI, still have the Crimson Tide at No. 1.

Alabama is at No. 2 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings which are a combination of results-based and predictive calculations. Jeff Sagarin and Ken Pomeroy project the Crimson Tide at No. 2, matching the NET, with Houston as the No. 1 team. ESPN’s BPI has Alabama at No. 3, behind Houston and Tennessee.

Note: Review how the NET, KPI, SOR, BPI and other metrics work here.

Any Alabama basketball fans expecting a cakewalk to a Final Four got a reality check from the Tennessee game. The flip side is Alabama is arguably the team most likely to beat any other team in the Big Dance. If pressed to pick, college basketball’s best three teams, I side with the computers, choosing the Crimson Tide, Houston, and Tennessee.