Alabama basketball fans needing a boost of positive energy after the Tennessee loss, got one Friday morning. Technically the boost came Thursday night when the Maryland Terrapins beat the Purdue Boilermakers, 68-54. The game was not a major upset. Purdue was favored by a couple of points, but the 14-point win by Maryland was a surprise.
When Maryland lost a January road game to Purdue, it dropped the Terps to 12-7. Now Maryland is 18-8.
The win is potentially important for the Alabama Crimson Tide because Purdue is one of no more than ten teams currently in position to earn a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday. Along with Alabama Basketball and Purdue, other primary contenders are Houston, Kansas, Texas, Baylor, UCLA, Tennessee, Arizona, and Virginia.
Before the Tennessee game, Alabama was ranked No. 1 in the AP and Coaches polls, but more importantly, was projected by many Bracketologists as the overall No. 1 seed.
Why worry about NCAA Tournament seed projections with almost a month left before Selection Sunday? Worry might not be the right word, but Alabama basketball fans closely tracking Bracketology projections have a sound reason. Earning a 1-seed matters, a lot.
A year ago, Aaron Torres explained,
"The idea the tourney is “wide open” is a myth:In the last 14 NCAA Tourneys, 11 No. 1 seeds have won … Saying its “wide open” is just dumb"
In the 1985 – 2021 NCAA Tournaments, 1-seeds have made the Final Four 59 times, the Championship Game, 36 times, and won it all 23 times. By comparison, the totals for 2-seeds are 29 fewer Final Fours, 24 fewer Championship Games, and 18 fewer National Championships.
In the same interval, the National Championship has been won by a team lower than a 3-seed, just four times. Lower meaning seeds 4-16.
It remains true that in a single game, anything can happen. There are plenty of upsets in March and there are often surprising Cinderella teams in the Big Dance. But among the bottom half of NCAA Tournament seeds (9-16), the slipper has never fit for Cinderella.
Note: NCAA Tournament Seed History from the NCAA.
Alabama Basketball and gaining a 1-seed
All the deep dives into NCAA Tournament, projected seeds will remain guesses for another two to three weeks. If the Crimson Tide closes the regular season with five more wins, it will be a 1-seed, no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament.
After the loss to Tennessee, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi dropped the Crimson Tide from the overall No. 1 seed, to the No. 2, 1-seed. When Purdue lost Thursday night, Lunardi was prepared to flip the two teams again and make Alabama the No. 1 overall again.
Too many games remain to predict the overall 1-seed on Selection Sunday. But that team will get a big advantage in picking the location for its first-round and second-round games.