The title of this post is not intended to misinform. As stunning as it may seem, Alabama Football will go into the 2023 season on the bottom for SEC teams in returning starters. Even with the Transfer Portal creating quick roster transitions for many teams, too many new starters remain a red flag for any program.
If the experience calculation is based on returning production, rather than counting starters, Alabama is also No. 14 in the SEC. Based on data from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Alabama Crimson Tide is No. 125 among all FBS teams in returning production. Alabama is not just last in the SEC, but dead last. ‘Dead last’ means worse than last, as in last by a sizable margin.
Among SEC teams, the range of returning production is 40% for Alabama Football to 80% for the Texas A&M Aggies. Of course, returning production is not automatically good. If many of a team’s returners were sub-standard in 2022, there is no guarantee they will markedly improve in 2023.
What can be suggested is the teams with the most returning production, the best 2022 and 2023 signing classes and the most success in adding impact players through transfer should perform best. The two top football factories are in Tuscaloosa and Athens. As such, every season is a reload rather than a rebuild. Uncharacteristically, that is more true for Georgia this season than it is for the Crimson Tide.
Another wrinkle can be added. Which teams go into 2023 with the most talented experience at key positions? Texas A&M, LSU and Tennessee are in the top half of the SEC in returning production. Factor in Brian Kelly’s Transfer Portal success and the Aggies and the Bengal Tigers might be the two most talented teams in the SEC. The 2023 prospects are better for LSU because of returning QB, Jayden Daniels, while Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Petrino do not have a proven winner. In terms of a proven QB, the situation in Knoxville compares to College Station.
Returning Production – Alabama Football and other SEC Teams
- Texas A&M Aggies – 80%
- Missouri Tigers – 78%
- Auburn Tigers – 71%
- Ole Miss Rebels – 71%
- LSU Bengal Tigers – 71%
- Vanderbilt Commodores – 65%
- Tennessee Volunteers – 63%
- Kentucky Wildcats – 63%
- Georgia Bulldogs – 61%
- Mississippi State Bulldogs – 57%
- South Carolina Gamecocks – 55%
- Arkansas Razorbacks – 54%
- Florida Gators – 54%
- Alabama Crimson Tide – 40%
Should Alabama football fans be concerned? First, there is no reason to think Nick Saban and his rebuilt staff will not develop a new group of productive players. The Crimson Tide talent pool is deep. To the extent there might be a problem, the most vulnerable period will be in the Crimson Tide’s first 4-6 games. That schedule includes two basically practice games in Middle Tennessee and South Florida. It also includes Texas, Ole Miss, at Mississippi State and at Texas A&M.
Game two with the Longhorns in Tuscaloosa will be telling for the rebuilt Alabama football defense. Steve Sarkisian returns Quinn Ewers at QB, the three top receivers from last season, along with four starting offensive linemen. Except for Kool-Aid, an untested Alabama secondary could be vulnerable.
Based on a recent remark by Hugh Freeze about the lack of talent in the Auburn locker room, the Tigers returning production does not provide a big boost.