Alabama Football: Arguing about CFB Strength of Schedule projections

For now, at least, Alabama football fans are more worried about the 2024 schedule than about the 2023 schedule. In June the 2024 SEC schedule will be released. Debates will rage, especially about which teams have the easiest and hardest permanent opponents.

Until June, another schedule debate might take precedence. It is premature to stress over any projections of Strength of Schedule (SOS) for the 2023 season. There are far too many variables to predict how good any team will be in 2023, and exponentially harder to project a ranking for all 133 teams.

Such SOS projections began in February and no matter how accurate they may prove to be or not be; they are interesting.

There is no standard for such projections, but a common one is done using win-loss records from the previous season.

Based on that simple method, FB Schedules ranked the 133 FBS teams in schedule strength/weakness for the 2023 season. The 14 SEC teams are listed below with lower numbers projecting the most schedule difficulty. The numeral ranking next to each SEC team is its position among all 133 FBS teams.

2023 SOS – Win/Loss Method

• South Carolina Gamecocks – No. 1 (hardest in the FBS)
• Ole Miss Rebels – No. 4
• Missouri Tigers – No. 5
• Florida Gators – No. 6
• Kentucky Wildcats – No. 11
• Auburn Tigers – No. 12
• Tennessee Vols – No. 16
• Texas A&M Aggies – No. 22
• Mississippi State Bulldogs – No. 27
• Alabama Crimson Tide – No. 31
• Vanderbilt Commodores – No. 42
• Arkansas Razorbacks – No. 50
• (Tied) Georgia Bulldogs and LSU Bengal Tigers – No. 63

Recently, Kirby Lee of USA Sports calculated a 2023 SOS, using a more qualitative approach, that factors in the variables of home and away games.

The results published by Lee are quite different from the more traditional calculation. Again, just SEC teams are listed below. The numeric ranking for the 14, SEC teams is progressive from the hardest regular season schedule at No. 1 to the easiest at No. 14.

• No. 1 – Alabama Crimson Tide
• No. 2 – Florida Gators
• No. 3 – Missouri Tigers
• No. 4 – Vanderbilt Commodores
• No. 5 – Ole Miss Rebels
• No. 6 – LSU Bengal Tigers
• No. 7 – South Carolina Gamecocks
• No. 8 – Mississippi State Bulldogs
• No. 9 – Auburn Tigers
• No. 10 – Kentucky Wildcats
• No. 11 – Tennessee Vols
• No. 12 – Texas A&M Aggies
• No. 13 – Georgia Bulldogs
• No. 14 – Arkansas Razorbacks

No Argument from Alabama Football Fans

Alabama football fans will easily embrace the 2023 SOS projection provided by Kirby Lee. Georgia fans will hate it. Much has been written about Georgia’s weak 2023 schedule. Had a game against Oklahoma not been replaced by a game against a weaker foe, the Bulldogs’ SOS would have shown a more challenging season. The most-repeated claim about the UGA vs. OU game is the SEC forced the cancellation. The complication was a follow-up game between the two schools, in 2024 after OU joins the SEC. Insiders claim the SEC encouraged the cancellation and Georgia jumped at the chance.

It is interesting in Lee’s projection that of the seven SEC teams with the hardest schedules, four are in the SEC East.