Alabama Football: If ESPN FPI is right what a 2023 SEC season

ESPN has updated a preseason 2023 FPI. Alabama football fans have more than a few reasons to take notice.

It is tempting to take any FPI preseason ranking as having no more than entertainment value. The undisclosed algorithm becomes more credible about halfway through each college football season. Even then, historically, there have been head-scratchers.

What can be said about ESPN’s most recent FPI is for Alabama football fans it is quite interesting. Ohio State may or may not deserve the No. 1 spot assigned to it in the FPI. The Buckeyes appear to have a harder schedule than the Georgia Bulldogs, but an easier one than the Alabama Crimson Tide ranked at No. 2.

Alabama football fans are more interested in how much tougher is the Tide’s schedule than Georgia’s. One point of comparison is the most challenging out-of-conference foe for the Bulldogs (based on the FPI) is Georgia Tech at No. 65. For Alabama Football, it is Texas at No. 5. The least challenging SEC opponent for the Crimson Tide is Auburn at No. 39. Georgia also plays   Auburn, plus No. 40, Missouri; No. 42, South Carolina and No. 73, Vanderbilt.

In the top 20 of the FPI, Alabama has five opponents. Georgia has three. All the SEC teams are listed below.

The most glaring difference between the Alabama and Georgia schedules is at the top of the FPI. The Crimson Tide plays No. 4 LSU and No. 5 Texas. The highest-ranked opponent for Georgia is No. 12 Tennessee.

What does the FPI indicate for Alabama Football?

• Only three teams have 11-plus projected wins. Ohio State at 11.8 wins, Georgia at 11.7, and Alabama at 11.1
• The Crimson Tide’s odds to win the SEC West are 74.3%. The LSU Bengal Tigers have odds of 20.4%.
• Across the 133-team FBS, only three teams have better than 34.2% odds to make the Playoffs. They are Ohio State at 82.2%; Georgia at 63.1% and Alabama at 62.1%.
• Only three teams have a better than 14.5% chance to make the National Championship game. They are Ohio State at 57.2%; Alabama at 38% and Georgia at 35.9%.

Although ESPN closely guards its FPI algorithm, this much is known.

"For the preseason, the system measures the past performances of teams to determine a rating. It also takes returning or added production and recruiting statistics. Once that’s all calculates, ESPN simulates the season 20,000 times to create their official projections."

SEC Football Teams and FPI Ranking (plus Texas)

• No. 2 – Alabama Crimson Tide
• No. 3 – Georgia Bulldogs
• No. 4 – LSU Bengal Tigers
• No. 5 – Texas Longhorns
• No. 12 – Tennessee Vols
• No. 16 – Ole Miss Rebels
• No. 18 – Florida Gators
• No. 19 – Texas A&M Aggies
• No. 28 – Kentucky Wildcats
• No. 30 – Arkansas Razorbacks
• No. 32 – Mississippi State Bulldogs
• No. 39 – Auburn Tigers
• No. 40 – Missouri Tigers
• No. 42 – South Carolina Gamecocks
• No. 73 – Vanderbilt Commodores

What a season 2023 is going to be for Alabama Crimson Tide fans and the rest of the SEC.

Also of note, per the FPI, the SEC has a 51% chance to get two teams into the CFB Playoff field.